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Iron Ore Analysis Summary August 2023

In August 2023, iron ore prices exhibited a downtrend after initial anticipation-driven rises, leading to a sharp decline triggered by policy rumors and high trading activity. However, this low point was reversed as iron water production rebounded to historical highs, invalidating expectations of reduced demand and causing prices to rise rapidly to repair the basis with underlying fundamentals. Key factors included supply from major mines remaining elevated, despite a slight year-on-year decline in shipments, with September expected to see further increases due to seasonal demand. Demand remained strong on the back of high iron water levels, but concerns about fourth-quarter production cuts if steel output is strictly controlled have emerged. Inventory showed minor accumulation, and the weak real estate sector continued to weigh on overall demand prospects. For September, while price recovery has occurred, upward momentum is expected to be limited as pessimistic outlooks are partially mended but structural risks persist.