2010年-世界发展银行全球_Investment_in_New_Private_Infrastructure_Projects_in_Developing_Countries_Slowed_Down_in_the_First_Quarter_of_2010_13页_860kb

PPI Data Update Note 38 Summary - September 2010

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of investment trends in new private infrastructure projects (PPI projects) in developing countries during the first quarter of 2010. It highlights the impact of the global financial crisis, changes in financial market conditions, and the distribution of investment across regions, countries, and sectors.

Main Points

• Overall Investment Decline:
  Investment commitments to new PPI projects in developing countries fell by 25% in Q1 2010 compared to Q1 2009.

  • The absence of large projects (e.g., the US$6.75 billion San Antonio and US$4.17 billion Jirau hydropower plants in Brazil) explains the decline.
  • Excluding projects of US$4 billion or more, investment would have grown by 17%.

• Concentration in India:

  • India accounted for over 50% of the total investment in Q1 2010.
  • Other large economies (Brazil, China, Turkey) saw investment declines, while the rest of the developing countries showed 11% growth.

• Sectoral Distribution:

  • Energy remained the largest sector in terms of investment, despite a 33% drop.
  • Transport investment was stable, and water and sewerage saw growth, though at a low level.
  • The number of projects fell by 25%, but the average project size increased from US$146 million in 2004 to US$457 million in Q1 2010.

• Financial Market Conditions:

  • The financial crisis impact on project delays and cancellations has declined.
  • Liquidity and financing conditions have improved but remain more stringent than pre-crisis levels.
  • Projects face lower debt/equity ratios, shorter tenors, and more conservative structures.
  • Syndicated loans saw a 25% drop in Q1 2010 compared to Q4 2009, but refinancing was the main use of loan volume.

• Key Financiers:

  • Local public banks and multilateral/bilateral agencies remain the primary sources of funding.
  • In Q1 2010, 33% of investment came from local public banks, and 17% from multilateral and bilateral agencies.

• Project Pipeline:

  • The pipeline of PPI projects is strong, with 440 projects in various stages of development.
  • The pipeline is highly concentrated in large projects (US$1 billion or more), which account for 50% of total investment.
  • India and Brazil are the leading countries in terms of project volume and investment.

• Regional Trends:

  • South Asia (India) saw a 148% increase in investment, while Latin America and the Caribbean and Europe and Central Asia saw significant declines.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa had no new projects in Q1 2010.

• Country Income Groups:

  • Lower-middle-income countries saw the highest investment growth (96% increase).
  • Upper-middle-income countries experienced an 83% decline, and low-income countries had the lowest investment (down to US$388 million).

• Project Status and Delays:

  • 9% of projects were delayed or canceled due to the crisis.
  • 11% were affected by the crisis but had other implementation issues.
  • 19% were delayed or canceled for reasons unrelated to the crisis.

• Project Types:

  • Greenfield projects saw a 30% decline in investment.
  • Concessions and divestitures showed growth, with divestitures increasing by 116%.

Key Information

• Total Investment in Q1 2010: US$22.6 billion.
• Projects Reaching Closure: 53 projects.
• Pipeline Projects:
  • Awarded: 131 projects (US$22.9 billion).
  • Looking for Finance: 66 projects (US$40.4 billion).
  • Final Tender Stage: 46 projects (US$20.1 billion).
• Top Projects:
  • Krishnapatnam Ultra Mega power plant (US$5 billion, India).
  • Belo Monte hydro power plant (US$13 billion, Brazil).
  • Gebze-Orhangazi-Izmir highway (US$5 billion, Turkey).
  • Sao Paolo-Rio de Janeiro high-speed railway (US$19.2 billion, Brazil).

Conclusion

PPI investment in developing countries remains concentrated in large economies and projects, particularly in India and energy sectors. While the financial crisis impact has waned, implementation issues such as delays in land acquisition and government approvals have become more significant. The pipeline of PPP projects is robust, and governments continue to support these initiatives. However, the recovery in investment is not yet certain and may be short-lived. Financial conditions remain stringent, and "flight to quality" is still evident in project financing.