2009年-世界发展银行全球_New_Private_Infrastructure_Projects_in_Developing_Countries_Continue_to_Take_Place_But_Projects_are_Being_Affected_by_the_Financial_Crisis_6页_655kb

PPI Data Update Note 21 Summary - March 2009

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on new private infrastructure projects (PPI) in developing countries, focusing on project closures, financing challenges, and sectoral and regional variations in investment levels.

Main Points

• Continuity of Private Activity: Despite the financial crisis, new private activity in developing countries continued, with projects being tendered and brought to financial closure.
• Rate of Closure: The rate of project closure was 26% lower in the first months of the crisis (Aug–Nov 2008) than in the same period in 2007. However, it recovered to a 15% decline in Aug–Dec 2008, and activity increased in January 2009.
• Impact of the Crisis: The financial crisis has made financing more difficult and expensive. The increased cost of financing is a major concern, particularly for projects reliant on user fees. Projects in transport and energy have been most affected, with delays and cancellations reported.
• Project Delays and Cancellations: A total of $81 billion in projects are delayed or at risk of being delayed, with 25% of projects by investment being delayed or at risk. Cancellations are less common but still present.
• Regional and Income Group Variations:
  • ECA and Upper Middle Income Countries are the most affected, with significant investment declines.
  • SSA and South Asia have seen more stable or slightly increased investments.
  • Low Income Countries have seen a slight increase in investment, but many projects are at risk of delays.
• Government and Institutional Support: Governments in Brazil and India have taken measures to support PPI financing, including increased funding for public banks and extending concession periods. Multilateral and bilateral agencies are also playing a key role in financing.
• Investor Interest: There is still sustained investor interest in PPI/PPP projects, with several projects receiving multiple bids. Stronger investors are showing interest in distressed assets.

Key Information

• Total Investment in PPI Projects (Aug 2008–Jan 2009): $198.089 billion.
• Projects Reaching Financial Closure: 120 projects with $44.279 billion in investment.
• Projects Looking for Financing: 68 projects with $59.243 billion in investment.
• Projects in Tender Stage: 28 projects with $17.9 billion in investment.
• Major Affected Sectors:
  • Transport: 24 projects with $11.7 billion in investment, a 26% decline.
  • Energy: 51 projects with $23.5 billion in investment, a 10% decline.
• Most Affected Regions:
  • ECA: $3.1 billion in investment, a 70% decline from 2007.
  • Upper Middle Income Countries: $12.2 billion in investment, a 44% decline.
• Investment by Income Group:
  • Lower Middle Income Countries: $10.8 billion in investment, a 40% increase.
  • Low Income Countries: $12.8 billion in investment, a 3% increase (but with most of the growth attributed to India).
• Trends in Financing:
  • Higher Cost of Financing: Anecdotal evidence and ITU reports indicate that financing costs have increased significantly.
  • Delayed Projects: 42% of energy and 42% of transport projects are delayed or at risk of delay.
  • Government Measures: Brazil and India have taken active steps to support PPI financing, including increased funding and extended concession periods.

Conclusion

While the financial crisis has had a significant impact on PPI projects, particularly in transport and energy, there is a sign of recovery in the later months of 2008 and early 2009. The effects are most pronounced in ECA and upper middle income countries, where investment declines are substantial. The situation remains volatile, with financial markets still uncertain and the potential for further delays or cancellations if markets do not recover soon. The preliminary analysis will be updated as more data becomes available.