2010年-世界发展银行全球_Private_Activity_in_Transport_Slows_Down_in_2009_But_Remains_Concentrated_in_Road_Projects_12页_901kb

Private Activity in Transport Summary

Core Content

Private activity in transport in developing countries declined for the third consecutive year in 2009, with investments falling by 20% and the number of projects decreasing by 19% compared to 2008. The decline was primarily due to lower investment in new projects and physical assets. Despite this, private activity remained concentrated in road projects, with a few large developing economies like Brazil, India, and Mexico being the main contributors.

Main Points

• Investment Decline:

  • Total investment commitments in 2009 reached US$19.2 billion for new projects, with an additional US$2.5 billion in commitments for existing projects, totaling US$21.7 billion.
  • This represents a 37% drop from the 2006 peak.
  • By destination, the decline in physical assets explains the drop in total investment compared to 2008.

• Project Activity:

  • The number of projects fell by 58% compared to 2006.
  • The average project size increased from US$242 million in 2005 to US$383 million in 2009, while the median rose from US$50 million to US$192 million.

• Concentration of Activity:

  • In 2009, 75% of investment in new projects and 64% of new projects were concentrated in the first two quarters.
  • This concentration may be attributed to the backlog of projects from the second half of 2008 and the easing of financial constraints in the first half of 2009.

Key Information

Project Types

• Concessions: 32 projects, representing 65% of investment in new transport projects.
• Greenfield Projects: 16 projects, mainly BOT contracts, accounting for 37% of investment.
• Lease Contracts: 2 projects.

Subsector Activity

• Roads: 32 projects, involving around 6,400 kilometers of road and US$15.4 billion in investment.
• Seaports: 12 projects, with combined annual capacity of 3.5 million TEUs and investment of US$1.9 billion.
• Airports: 2 projects, involving investment of US$58 million.
• Railroads: 4 projects, including four new greenfield railway contracts with total investment of US$1.8 billion.

Regional Activity

• East Asia and Pacific:

  • Four countries implemented seven projects.
  • China had three projects, contributing nearly all of the regional investment (US$2,513 million).
  • Projects included two railways and one road.

• Europe and Central Asia:

  • Three countries signed three PPI contracts for a road and two seaport projects.
  • The largest road project was the second phase of the A2 Motorway in Poland (US$2.2 billion).

• Latin America and the Caribbean:

  • The most active region in 2009, with six countries implementing 23 projects.
  • Brazil led regional activity with eight projects and 78% of regional investment.
  • Mexico implemented four projects, including the largest one, Proyecto Pacifico Norte.

• Middle East and North Africa:

  • Two countries had private activity in seaports.
  • Algeria and the Syrian Arab Republic signed concessions for port development.

• South Asia:

  • 12 projects implemented, with India accounting for 11 of them and all regional investment.
  • Ten of the projects were road projects, involving over 854 kilometers and US$2.2 billion in investment.

• Sub-Saharan Africa:

  • Two projects implemented, including a port concession in Guinea and a toll road in Senegal.

Potential Projects

• At least 44 projects were awarded but had not reached closure by the end of 2009.
• Potential projects were distributed across regions, with India having the most (14 projects).

Canceled and Distressed Projects

• 74 projects (62 canceled, 12 distressed) were reported.
• These projects represented 6% of all transport projects and 11% of transport investment from 1990-2009.

Conclusion

Despite the decline in private activity in transport in 2009, the sector remained active, especially in road projects. The activity was highly concentrated in a few large economies, with Brazil, India, and Mexico leading the way. The majority of the projects were concessions, with greenfield projects and lease contracts playing a smaller role. The year saw a shift in investment patterns and bidding criteria, with some projects being structured to reduce government subsidies and increase private sector involvement.