2008年-世界发展银行全球_New_Private_Infrastructure_Projects_in_Developing_Countries_Have_Started_Being_Affected_by_the_Financial_Crisis_3页_589kb

Summary of New Private Infrastructure Projects in Developing Countries During the Financial Crisis (Aug-Nov 2008)

Core Content

New private infrastructure projects (PPI) in developing countries continued to be developed and closed during the financial crisis in the period of August to November 2008, but at a significantly reduced pace compared to the same period in 2007. The investment commitments for these projects totaled US$17.2 billion, representing a decline of over 40%.

The financial crisis has had a multi-faceted impact on PPI projects, including higher financing costs, delays, and cancellations. The crisis has led to reduced access to capital markets and bank lending, increased risk perception, and financial market instability, all of which have made it more difficult to secure funding.

Main Points

• Financial Close Rate Declined:

  • In 21 developing countries, 31 PPI projects reached financial closure in Aug-Nov 2008, down from 288 projects in 2007.
  • The decline in investment is attributed to the financial crisis, which has made financing more challenging and costly.

• Impact of the Crisis:

  • 3% of surveyed projects reported increased financing costs as a major impact.
  • 27% of projects were delayed, 2% canceled, and 3% at risk of cancellation.
  • 47% of projects are at risk of delay if financing is not secured in the coming months.
  • Total delayed and at-risk projects amount to US$82 billion, spread across South Asia, ECA, LAC, and EAP.

• Financing Sources:

  • Local public banks, multilateral, bilateral, and export credit agencies have become key financiers.
  • Many projects opted for local currency denominated debt due to foreign currency devaluations.
  • Multilateral and bilateral agencies provided US$6.9 billion in direct financing for 12 of the 31 projects that reached financial closure.
  • These agencies are also evaluating 16 projects (totaling US$16 billion) for future financing.

• Investor Appetite and Tender Outcomes:

  • Investor interest in new PPI projects has declined.
  • Anecdotal evidence suggests some tenders have been delayed or canceled due to low interest.
  • 9 projects (totaling US$15 billion) had delayed or canceled tenders.

Key Trends and Outlook

• Delayed Projects:

  • A significant portion of projects are postponed or at risk of delay, especially in South Asia, ECA, LAC, and EAP.
  • US$25.955 billion in projects are currently delayed, with US$56.028 billion potentially delayed if financing is not secured.

• Cancellations:

  • 5 projects (totaling US$2.8 billion) have been canceled.
  • 35 projects (totaling US$35 million) are at risk of cancellation due to financial crisis impacts.

• Long-Term Outlook:

  • It is too early to fully assess the crisis's impact on PPI projects.
  • Investors and financiers are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, likely to persist for 3–6 months.
  • If financial markets bottom out or recover, the impact on project financing levels may remain significant for a long time.
  • The flight to quality is expected to result in more stringent financial conditions, including higher costs, lower debt/equity ratios, and more conservative structures.

• Regional Focus:

  • Projects are mainly in electricity and transport.
  • The largest investments are in LAC (US$8.3 billion), MENA (US$2.9 billion), and EAP (US$2.8 billion).

Conclusion

The financial crisis has significantly slowed down the pace of new private infrastructure projects in developing countries, with lower financial closure rates, increased financing costs, and project delays and cancellations. The full extent of the impact remains to be seen, but the trend is expected to continue unless financial markets stabilize. The role of local public banks and multilateral/bilateral agencies is critical in mitigating the crisis's effects, but their capacity may not be sufficient to fully replace traditional financing sources.