20250617-中泰国际证券-中国房地产周报_政策深化市场发展_16页_2mb

New Housing Sales Performance

New flat sales volume in the top 30 cities declined 3.0% year-on-year in week ending June 15, 2025, a narrower drop compared to the previous week's 18.1% decline and a环比 increase of 22.5%. City categories show divergence, with first-tier cities seeing minor year-on-year growth, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines. Notably, Beijing and Shanghai recorded higher cumulative year-on-year increases in sales.

Land Sales and Inventory Ratios

Total land area traded in top 100 cities decreased 34.0% year-on-year and 2.5% month-on-month, reflecting slower market activity. The inventory ratio for high-rise cities rose, with first-tier cities showing a lower ratio than last year but improving compared to the previous week.

Policy Updates

The State Council, chaired by Premier Li Qiang on June 13, emphasized stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on new development models and inventory clearance. National statistics confirmed improved data in May, with higher new home start and completion rates year-on-year, indicating market stability efforts.

Price Indices and Housing Market

The 70-city new residential price index showed a 4.1% year-on-year decline in May, a narrowing of the gap from April's 4.5%. First-tier cities led in price stability, while the market remains supportive with indicators suggesting a gradual recovery.

Stock Performance

The China Inland Real Estate Index climbed 4.1% in the week, outperforming the broader market. Analysts recommend focusing on state-owned developers like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land for investment potential based on solid fundamentals.

Recommendations and Risks

The market is positive with ongoing policy support, but risks include policy changes, interest rate fluctuations, project delays, and financing challenges. Long-term growth is expected if measures effectively address current issues.