20181113-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook_2018.11.13_24页_1mb

Wheat Outlook Summary (November 13, 2018)

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the global and domestic wheat market outlook for the 2018/19 marketing year, highlighting changes in production, trade, and prices. Key updates include revised production data from China, reduced output in several countries, and adjustments in global and U.S. stocks and use.

Main Points

Global Wheat Outlook

• Global Wheat Production: Increased by 2.6 million tons for 2018/19, mainly due to a significant rise in China's production.
• China's Production: Revised data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates higher harvested area and yields, leading to a 4.5 million ton increase in production.
• Other Countries: Australia, Morocco, Pakistan, and Ukraine saw reductions in production, with Australia down 1 million tons to 17.5 million.
• Global Ending Stocks: Increased by 6.5 million tons, with all gains attributed to China's higher stocks. Stocks outside China were reduced by 0.9 million tons.
• Global Price Range: The season-average farm price range narrowed by 10 cents to $4.90 and $5.30 per bushel.

Domestic Wheat Outlook (United States)

• Planted Area for 2019/20: Projected at 51 million acres.
• Seed Use: Increased to 69 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 7 million bushels to 949 million, due to higher seed use.
• Farm Price: Remains at $5.10 per bushel, with a narrower range.
• Export Projections: The U.S. wheat export projection for 2018/19 is 29.0 million tons, with current export sales and shipments lagging and needing to accelerate.
• Domestic Use: Food use is on track to reach the 970 million bushel projection, while feed and residual use increased due to higher seed use.

Key Information

Production Changes

• China: Projected production at 132.5 million tons, up 4.5 million tons from previous estimates.
• Australia: Production at 17.5 million tons, down 1.0 million tons.
• Ukraine: Production at 25.0 million tons, down 0.5 million tons.
• Pakistan: Production at 25.5 million tons, down 0.8 million tons.
• Morocco: Production at 7.3 million tons, down 0.9 million tons.
• Algeria: Production at 3.9 million tons, up 0.9 million tons.
• EU3: Production at 137.6 million tons, up 0.1 million tons.

Trade and Imports

• Global Wheat Trade: Reduced by 1.6 million tons to 179.2 million for the 2018/19 international trade year.
• Australia's Exports: Down 1.5 million tons to 11.5 million, due to reduced supplies and higher domestic prices.
• Top Importers: Indonesia, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam are expected to reduce wheat imports due to higher international prices and lower Australian supplies.
• Pakistan: Exports down 0.2 million tons to 1.0 million after the elimination of an export subsidy.
• Uruguay: Exports up 0.1 million tons due to improved crop prospects.

Price and Use Trends

• High Wheat Prices: Impact domestic use and trade, with reduced feed and food use in some countries.
• Extraction Rates: U.S. wheat flour extraction rates exceeded both last year's and the 5-year average from July to September, indicating efficient use of grain.
• Planting Delays: Winter wheat planting in the Southern Plains States lagged behind the 5-year average and previous year's pace due to wet conditions.

Long-term Projections

• USDA Agricultural Projections to 2028: Updated with new data, including 2019/20 planted area and utilization forecasts.
• Agricultural Outlook Forum: Projections will be revised in February 2019.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The global wheat market for 2018/19 shows a modest increase in production, primarily driven by China's revisions, while several other countries experienced declines. U.S. domestic wheat use and trade are influenced by higher seed use, reduced export competitiveness, and the slow pace of export sales. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring production and trade dynamics, particularly in light of weather-related delays and price fluctuations.