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Summary of U.S. Wheat Outlook (WHS-17j, October 16, 2017)

Core Content

This report provides an update on U.S. and global wheat production, use, and trade for the 2017/18 marketing year. It highlights changes in production, stocks, and consumption, along with price projections and export dynamics.

Main Points

U.S. Domestic Wheat Outlook

• All-Wheat Production: Increased by 1.36 million bushels to 1,741 million bushels, with winter wheat production reduced by nearly 18 million bushels. Other spring and durum wheat production increased by 4.4 and 14.7 million bushels respectively, offsetting the winter wheat decline.
• Feed and Residual Use: Reduced by 30 million bushels to 120 million bushels due to lower-than-expected first-quarter disappearance and reduced availability of hard red winter wheat.
• Ending Stocks: Raised by 27.6 million bushels to 960 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year.
• Season-Average Farm Price (SAFP): Unchanged at $4.60 per bushel, with a narrowed range to $4.40–$4.80 per bushel.
• Grain Stocks: September 1 stocks imply lower first-quarter disappearance, with ending stocks for 2016/17 reduced by about 4 million bushels, lowering carry-in for 2017/18.

Winter Wheat

• Production: Projected at 1,269 million bushels for 2017/18, up 17.7 million bushels from the September forecast but more than 400 million bushels lower than the 2016/17 estimate.
• Yield: Estimated at 50.2 bushels per acre, down from the record 55.3 bushels per acre in 2016/17.
• Harvested Area: Reduced to 25.3 million acres, down 500,000 acres from the previous forecast and 5 million from the 2016/17 estimate.
• Drought Impact: Montana and South Dakota saw significant reductions in harvested area, while Oklahoma offset some of the loss in Texas.

Durum Wheat

• Production: Increased by 4.4 million bushels to 54.9 million bushels due to improved conditions in Montana and North Dakota.
• Yield: Unchanged in North Dakota at 24 bushels per acre, but down to 16 bushels per acre in Montana.
• Harvested Area: Increased in Montana and North Dakota, but reduced in California, leading to a 47% decline in 2017/18 production compared to 2016/17.

International Wheat Outlook

• Global Production: Forecast at 751.2 million tons for 2017/18, the second-highest on record, up 6.3 million tons from the previous forecast.
• Major Producers: Increases in production are seen in India, the EU, Russia, Turkey, Canada, and Morocco.
• Australia: Production reduced by 1.0 million tons to 21.5 million tons due to persistent dryness.
• Mexico and Brazil: Reduced production due to shifts to more profitable crops and adverse weather conditions.

World Wheat Consumption and Trade

• Consumption: Increased by 2.9 million tons to 708.7 million tons, driven by higher feed and residual use, and food, seed, and industrial use.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to rise by 5.0 million tons to 268.1 million tons, a new record.
• Trade: Remains unchanged at 181.9 million tons for the July-June trade year, expected to be above last year's record.
• Exports: Australia's exports are down 1.0 million tons, while Canada and Argentina show increases due to higher production and strong export sales.
• Imports: India and Turkey are projected to import less wheat due to increased domestic production.

Key Information

• Next Release: November 14, 2017.
• Data Sources: USDA, NASS, and FAS databases.
• Updated Reports: Flour Milling Products report will be released on November 1, and related updates will be reflected in the November 9 WASDE report.
• Contacts: Jennifer Bond (domestic), Olga Liefert (international), and Beverly Payton (web publishing) for further information.
• Subscription: Readers can subscribe to ERS e-newsletters for timely updates.
• Data Access: Available through the USDA ERS Wheat Data landing page and the Wheat Chart Gallery.

Tables and Figures

• Figure 1: U.S. wheat production by class (2017/18 vs. 2016/17).
• Figure 2: U.S. all-wheat production 2017/18 vs. 2016/17.
• Figure 3: U.S. September 1 stocks, 2017 vs. 2016.
• Map A: Wheat production changes for 2017/18, October 2017.
• Map B: Wheat ending stocks changes for 2017/18, October 2017.
• Map C: Wheat imports changes for 2017/18, October 2017.

Conclusion

The report indicates a marginal increase in U.S. all-wheat production and a decrease in feed and residual use. Global wheat production is near record levels, with significant increases in several major producing countries. Australia's production is down due to drought, while other regions like the EU and Russia show improved conditions. The U.S. all-wheat export projection remains unchanged, and the season-average farm price is stable, with a narrowed range. Overall, the global wheat market is expected to see higher ending stocks and trade volumes.