2021年夏季欧洲经济预测（英）-46页_1mb

European Economic Forecast Summer 2021 Summary

Core Content

The European Economic Forecast Summer 2021 (Interim) provides an updated outlook on the economic situation in the EU and euro area, taking into account the evolving pandemic, vaccination progress, and the impact of economic reopening. The report highlights the recovery in economic activity, the upward revision in inflation expectations, and the role of policy support in sustaining growth.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Recovery

• GDP Growth: The EU and euro area are forecasted to grow by 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022, with the euro area's output expected to return to pre-crisis levels in the last quarter of 2021, one quarter earlier than previously anticipated.
• Activity Recovery: Economic activity in the EU rebounded strongly in the second quarter and is expected to accelerate in the third quarter before easing in the fourth. The recovery is attributed to the easing of virus containment measures and the revival of consumption and tourism.
• Regional Variations: While some Member States are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of 2021, others will take longer due to varying degrees of pandemic impact and recovery progress.

Inflation Outlook

• Inflation Rise: Inflation is expected to rise in 2021 and 2022 due to increased energy and commodity prices, production bottlenecks, and strong demand.
• EU Inflation: The EU's inflation rate is forecasted to average 2.2% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022, an increase of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively compared to the Spring Forecast.
• Euro Area Inflation: Inflation in the euro area is expected to average 1.9% in 2021 and 1.4% in 2022, with an increase of 0.2% and 0.1% compared to the Spring Forecast.
• Price Pressures: The report notes that while current inflationary pressures are expected to be transitory, they could become more entrenched if supply constraints persist and price pressures are passed on to consumers.

Pandemic and Vaccination Progress

• Pandemic Trends: The number of new infections in the EU has been declining since April 2021, with the 14-day incidence rate dropping to levels last seen in August 2020.
• Vaccination Rates: Over 60% of the adult population in the EU has received at least one vaccine dose, up from 30% in the Spring Forecast. However, full vaccination rates are still lower than in the US and UK.
• Containment Measures: Restrictions have been relaxed in the second quarter of 2021 at a faster pace than previously anticipated, with the average stringency of government-mandated restrictions now at its lowest since September 2020.

Financial Markets

• Global Financial Conditions: Financing conditions have eased globally since May 2021, with accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies supporting market growth.
• EU Financial Markets: EU financial market sentiment remains positive, driven by the expected recovery, strong company earnings, and accommodative monetary policy.
• Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, with continued asset purchases under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) and long-term funding to banks under TLTRO III.

Business and Consumer Confidence

• Business Confidence: Surveys indicate a significant improvement in business confidence, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator reaching its highest level since February 2018.
• Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence has also improved, with the flash estimate of consumer confidence reaching its highest level since October 2018.

Tourism and Services

• Tourism Recovery: Tourism activity in the EU has started to recover, with data from Airbnb showing an improvement in customer reviews. The introduction of the EU Digital COVID Certificate on 1 July is expected to further facilitate cross-border travel.
• Services Sector: The services sector has shown strong growth, with confidence reaching record highs and activity rising sharply.

Supply Chain and Production Constraints

• Production Bottlenecks: A growing number of firms in the EU report production constraints, primarily due to shortages of materials, equipment, and labor.
• Impact on Sectors: The automotive sector, in particular, has been affected by semiconductor shortages, with production remaining significantly below pre-pandemic levels.

Labour Market

• Employment Trends: Employment declined slightly in the first quarter of 2021, but this is expected to reverse as the economy recovers.
• Labour Market Slack: There is still substantial slack in the labor market, with total hours worked and average hours worked per person remaining below pre-crisis levels, especially in contact-intensive sectors.
• Job Vacancy Rate: The job vacancy rate has increased from its 2020-Q2 trough to 1.9% in the first quarter of 2021, still below the 2.1% seen in 2019-Q4.

Risks and Uncertainties

• Pandemic Variants: The emergence of new variants, particularly the Delta variant, poses a risk to the recovery, especially in countries like Portugal.
• Policy Withdrawal: The withdrawal of emergency policy support could affect economic activity if not managed carefully.
• Supply Constraints: If supply constraints persist, inflation could be higher than forecasted.

Summary Table

This forecast reflects the ongoing recovery and the complex interplay of factors such as the pandemic, vaccination progress, and global economic conditions.