2021年秋季欧洲经济预测（英）-204页_4mb

European Economic Forecast - Autumn 2021 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an institutional economic forecast for the European Union (EU) and its member states for the period from autumn 2021 onwards, focusing on growth, inflation, public finances, and key risks.

Main Points

Economic Recovery

• The EU economy is rebounding strongly from the pandemic recession, driven by the resumption of economic activity as vaccination campaigns advanced and restrictions eased.
• In the second quarter of 2021, the EU recorded a GDP growth rate of 5.0% (annual) and 2.0% (quarter-on-quarter), marking the fastest growth in the history of the time series.
• The euro area experienced similar growth, with 3.5% (annual) and 2.1% (quarter-on-quarter) in the second quarter of 2021.

Growth Outlook

• The EU is projected to grow at 5.0% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023.
• The euro area is expected to grow at 5.0% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, and 2.4% in 2023.
• The recovery is uneven across countries and sectors, with some regions and economies outperforming others.

Labour Market

• Labour market conditions improved significantly in the second quarter of 2021, with the creation of about 1.5 million jobs and a swift rebound in hours worked.
• Employment in the EU remained below pre-pandemic levels, and the amount of slack in the labour market was still significant due to high unemployment and inactive individuals.
• The EU unemployment rate in August 2021 was 6.8%, slightly above the pre-pandemic level of 6.5%.
• The labour market is expected to complete its recovery in 2022, with an estimated 3.4 million jobs created over the two years.
• The unemployment rate is projected to fall to 6.5% in 2023.

Inflation

• Inflation in the euro area reached a ten-year high of 4.1% in October 2021, driven by surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
• The annual HICP inflation in the euro area peaked at 3.4% in September 2021 and is expected to decline to 2.2% in 2022 and 1.4% in 2023.
• Inflation in the EU is projected to be 2.6% in 2021, 2.5% in 2022, and 1.6% in 2023.
• Core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) is expected to be 1.9% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022, the highest since 2012.

Current Account

• The EU current account surplus is expected to rise from 2.7% in 2020 to 3.2% in 2023, above the pre-pandemic level of 3.0%.
• This is attributed to the recovery in services trade, particularly international tourism, and an improving export performance.
• The merchandise trade surplus is projected to decline in 2021 and 2022 due to high energy costs, but is expected to recover in 2023.

Public Finances

• The EU general government budget deficit is expected to narrow from 6.6% of GDP in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
• Public investment and structural reforms supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) are expected to drive 2.9% productivity growth in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023.
• The aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stabilize in 2021 and start declining in 2022, reaching 89% of GDP in 2023.

Risks

• The recent surge in COVID-19 infections highlights the continued risk of new restrictions and their impact on economic activity, especially in countries with low vaccination rates.
• Supply-side bottlenecks, including logistics disruptions and shortages of raw materials and intermediate inputs, are expected to persist and limit growth.
• Elevated energy prices, particularly for natural gas and electricity, are constraining growth and contributing to inflationary pressures.
• Uncertainty remains high due to the evolving pandemic and potential long-term effects on the economy.

Key Information

• Growth Drivers: The reopening of economies, improved labour market conditions, and the full deployment of the RRF.
• Inflation Drivers: Energy price increases, supply disruptions, and strong base effects from the pandemic.
• Public Finance: The budget deficit is expected to decline as emergency support measures are unwound and economic activity recovers.
• Labour Market: Expected to complete recovery in 2022, with a projected decline in unemployment to 6.5% in 2023.
• Current Account: Surplus is expected to rise, driven by services trade and export performance.
• Regional Outlook: Growth and inflation vary across EU member states, with some experiencing stronger rebounds than others.
• Global Outlook: The global economy is expected to grow at 5.8% in 2021, 4.5% in 2022, and 3.7% in 2023, though divergences between advanced and emerging markets are expected to persist.

Special Issues

• Supply-side bottlenecks: Affecting logistics, raw materials, and microprocessor production.
• Energy prices: Rising sharply and impacting both consumption and investment.
• Labour shortages: Emerging in certain sectors, particularly those experiencing high activity.
• Housing market: Showing signs of recovery but with continued challenges.

Conclusion

The EU is expected to continue its economic expansion, with real GDP converging to its pre-pandemic growth path by early 2023. While the recovery is robust, it is not without challenges, including high inflation, supply disruptions, and the ongoing threat of the pandemic. The economic outlook is cautiously optimistic, with the potential for long-term growth and stability supported by structural reforms and the RRF.