欧盟委员会-2021年春季欧洲经济预测（英文）-2021.5-200页_3mb

European Economic Forecast - Spring 2021 Summary

Core Content

The European Economic Forecast for Spring 2021 outlines the economic outlook for the European Union (EU), the euro area (EA), and selected non-EU countries. It emphasizes the impact of the pandemic, the role of vaccination and policy support, and the path to recovery.

Main Points

• Economic Context: The EU economy faced a significant downturn in late 2020 due to a resurgence of the pandemic, pushing it back into recession. However, the recovery is expected to be stronger than previously anticipated.

• Growth Outlook:

  • The EU is forecasted to grow by 4.2% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.
  • The euro area is expected to grow by 4.3% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.
  • The recovery is expected to be uneven across countries, with some experiencing faster rebounds than others.

• Inflation Outlook:

  • Headline inflation is expected to peak in 2021 due to transitory factors such as energy prices, tax changes, and base effects.
  • Inflation in the EU is forecasted to rise from 0.7% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2021, then moderate to 1.5% in 2022.
  • In the euro area, inflation is expected to increase from 0.3% in 2020 to 1.7% in 2021, and then decline to 1.3% in 2022.

• Labour Market Outlook:

  • The unemployment rate in the EU is forecasted to rise to 7.6% in 2021 and decline to 7% in 2022, still above the 2019 level of 6.7%.
  • Recovery in employment is expected to be gradual, with some countries seeing continued job losses and higher unemployment rates this year.
  • The labor market will depend on the speed of economic recovery and the reallocation of workers across sectors.

• Public Finances:

  • The general government deficit in the EU is expected to rise to 7.5% of GDP in 2021, and to 8% of GDP in the euro area.
  • By 2022, the deficit is projected to halve to 3.3% of GDP in the EU and 3.4% in the euro area.
  • The debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU and euro area is expected to reach a new peak in 2021, with both areas projected to rise further.

• Key Policies:

  • The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) plays a central role in supporting the economic recovery.
  • The total EU expenditure expected to be financed by RRF grants is EUR 140 billion, or just below 1% of 2019 GDP.
  • The total economic impact is expected to be around 1.2% of 2019 EU real GDP.

• External Environment:

  • The global economy is expected to recover, with non-EU GDP growth at 5.9% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.
  • EU export markets are projected to grow by 8.3% in 2021 and 6.4% in 2022, while service exports are expected to take longer to recover.

• Consumer Behavior:

  • Private consumption is expected to rebound as restrictions ease and job and income prospects improve.
  • The EU household saving rate is projected to decline from 19.4% in 2020 to 13.6% in 2022, though still above pre-crisis levels.
  • Consumer sentiment and confidence have improved, but concerns about financial distress persist.

• Investment Trends:

  • Investment is expected to rise due to improving demand, favorable financing conditions, and the NGEU/RRF program.
  • The EU's public investment-to-GDP ratio is forecasted to increase to 3.5% in 2022, up from 3% in 2019.

Key Risks

• The pandemic's global spread and potential resurgence could affect the economic recovery.
• The effectiveness of vaccination programs and the speed of their rollout may determine the pace of recovery.
• The potential for long-term economic scars, such as reduced labor participation and persistent low demand, could impact future growth.

Summary of Key Countries

Key Policies and Programs

• RRF (Recovery and Resilience Facility): A major tool for supporting the recovery, expected to finance EUR 140 billion in 2021 and EUR 140 billion in 2022.
• NGEU (Next Generation EU): Provides financial support for the RRF, contributing to a stronger economic recovery.
• SURE (Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency): A temporary instrument to support employment and reduce unemployment.

Conclusion

The Spring 2021 forecast indicates a stronger recovery than previously anticipated, driven by vaccination efforts, supportive policy measures, and a rebound in global economic activity. However, the recovery is expected to be uneven across the EU and other regions, with risks still present due to the ongoing pandemic and its potential global resurgence. The RRF and NGEU are crucial in facilitating this recovery, with significant budgetary and economic impacts anticipated.