2021-12-04-欧盟委员会-2021年秋季欧洲经济预测（英）_204页_4mb

报告摘要

European Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 Summary

Core Content

The European Economic Forecast Autumn 2021 outlines the economic recovery and growth trajectory of the European Union (EU) and the Euro Area (EA) following the pandemic. The report highlights the resilience of the EU economy and the challenges it faces due to supply-side constraints and rising energy prices. It also assesses the outlook for non-EU countries and the global economy.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Growth Outlook

EU Growth Projections: The EU is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023.
Euro Area Growth Projections: The Euro Area is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022, and 2.4% in 2023.
GDP Rebound: In Q3 2021, the EU's GDP is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, with the Euro Area also close to its pre-crisis output level.
Private Consumption: Private consumption in the EU rebounded strongly in Q2 2021, reaching 3.3% q-o-q, with the Euro Area at 3.5%.

Labour Market

Improvement in Q2 2021: The EU created about 1.5 million jobs and saw a swift rebound in hours worked.
Unemployment Rate: The EU unemployment rate in August was 6.8%, slightly above the pre-pandemic level.
Recovery Timeline: The labour market is expected to complete its recovery in 2022, with 3.4 million jobs projected to be created over the next two years.
Labour Shortages: Certain sectors, especially those with high activity, are experiencing labour shortages.

Inflation

Inflation Peaks: Euro Area inflation peaked at 4.1% in October 2021, driven by energy price surges and supply disruptions.
Core Inflation: Core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) reached 2.1% in October 2021, the highest since 2012.
Inflation Trends: Inflation is expected to decline gradually over 2022 and stabilise in 2023, reaching 1.4% in the Euro Area and 1.6% in the EU.

Current Account

EU Current Account Surplus: The EU current account surplus is projected to increase from 2.7% of GDP in 2020 to 3.2% in 2023, surpassing the pre-pandemic level.
Drivers of Surplus: The services trade surplus is expected to be the main driver, fueled by international tourism recovery.
Merchandise Trade: The merchandise trade surplus is expected to decline in 2021-2022 due to high energy costs, but improve in 2023 with positive terms of trade and stronger export performance.

Public Finances

Government Deficit: The EU's general government deficit is expected to narrow from 6.6% of GDP in 2021 to 2.3% in 2023.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: The aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to stabilise in 2021 and start declining in 2022, reaching 89% in 2023.
RRF Impact: The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is expected to support growth and productivity.

Risks and Uncertainties

Pandemic Uncertainty: The recent surge in COVID-19 cases raises concerns about the reintroduction of restrictions.
Supply Constraints: Supply-side bottlenecks and energy price volatility are key risks to economic growth.
Structural Changes: Pandemic-induced structural changes could lead to productivity gains.
Inflation Risks: If supply constraints persist, inflation could exceed forecasts.

Key Challenges

Energy Prices: Natural gas and electricity prices are driving inflation and constraining growth.
Labour Market: While labour market conditions are improving, slack remains, particularly in low-vaccination countries.
Global Divergences: The global economy is expected to grow robustly but with increased divergences between advanced and emerging economies.

Special Issues

Supply Side Bottlenecks: Affect logistics, raw materials, and microchips.
Energy Prices: Have dampened growth and fuelled inflation.
Labour Market Tightness: Some sectors face shortages, while others still have slack.
Housing Market: House prices have been affected by the pandemic and are expected to continue evolving.

Summary of Projections (2021-2023)

Country/Region	Real GDP (2021)	Real GDP (2022)	Real GDP (2023)	Inflation (2021)	Inflation (2022)	Inflation (2023)	Unemployment Rate (2021)	Unemployment Rate (2022)	Unemployment Rate (2023)	Current Account (2021)	Current Account (2022)	Current Account (2023)	Budget Balance (2021)	Budget Balance (2022)	Budget Balance (2023)
Belgium	6.0	2.6	1.9	2.7	2.3	1.6	6.2	6.3	5.8	0.8	0.3	0.0	-7.8	-5.1	-4.9
Germany	2.7	4.6	1.7	3.1	2.2	1.7	3.6	3.4	3.2	6.7	6.8	6.9	-6.5	-2.5	-0.5
Estonia	9.0	3.7	3.5	4.0	3.9	2.1	6.8	5.7	5.2	-3.1	-2.5	-2.2	-3.1	-2.5	-2.2
Ireland	14.6	5.1	4.1	2.3	3.1	1.5	7.5	6.8	6.2	-3.2	-1.7	-0.3	-9.9	-3.9	-1.1
Greece	7.1	5.2	3.6	0.1	1.0	0.4	15.3	15.0	14.5	-6.3	-4.0	-2.8	-9.9	-3.9	-1.1
Spain	4.6	5.5	4.4	2.8	2.1	0.7	15.2	14.3	13.9	-0.9	-0.4	-0.4	-4.5	-3.4	-2.8
France	6.5	3.8	2.3	1.9	2.1	1.4	8.0	8.0	7.9	-2.4	-2.2	-1.0	-5.9	-2.3	-1.3
Italy	6.2	4.3	2.3	1.8	2.1	1.4	9.8	9.3	9.2	-7.2	-5.2	-4.4	-8.0	-5.7	-3.8
Cyprus	5.4	4.2	3.5	1.9	1.7	1.2	7.5	7.1	6.6	-4.9	-1.4	-0.9	-7.5	-2.3	-1.4
Latvia	4.7	5.0	4.0	3.1	3.6	0.8	7.3	6.9	6.6	-9.5	-4.2	-2.0	-7.0	-4.3	-3.9
Lithuania	5.0	3.6	3.4	3.8	3.1	2.0	7.1	6.3	6.0	-4.1	-3.1	-1.1	-7.3	-4.2	-3.2
Luxembourg	5.8	3.7	2.7	3.2	2.2	1.8	6.1	5.8	5.7	-0.2	0.2	0.3	-6.6	-3.6	-2.3
Malta	5.0	6.2	4.8	1.1	1.6	1.5	4.0	3.8	3.7	-11.1	-5.8	-4.7	-8.0	-5.7	-4.3
Netherlands	4.0	3.3	1.6	2.1	2.2	1.5	3.5	3.6	3.6	-5.3	-2.1	-1.0	-6.6	-3.6	-2.3
Austria	4.4	4.9	1.9	2.7	2.5	2.0	5.0	4.6	4.5	-7.1	-3.9	-2.4	-7.5	-5.7	-3.8
Portugal	4.5	5.3	2.4	0.8	1.7	1.2	6.7	6.5	6.4	-1.1	-2.4	-1.9	-8.0	-5.7	-3.8
Slovenia	6.4	4.2	3.5	1.7	2.1	1.7	4.6	4.5	4.4	-7.2	-5.2	-4.4	-8.0	-5.7	-3.8
Slovakia	3.8	5.3	4.3	2.8	4.3	2.2	6.8	6.4	5.6	-7.3	-4.3	-3.2	-8.0	-5.7	-3.8
Finland	3.4	2.8	2.0	1.8	1.9	1.9	7.7	6.9	6.5	-3.8	-2.4	-1.1	-8.0	-5.7	-3.8
Euro Area	5.0	4.3	2.4	2.4	2.2	1.4	7.9	7.5	7.3	-7.1	-3.9	-2.4
Bulgaria	3.8	4.1	3.5	2.4	2.9	1.8	5.1	4.6	4.4	-3.6	-2.8	-2.1
Czechia	3.0	4.4	3.2	3.3	3.4	2.3	2.7	2.6	2.4	-7.0	-4.3	-3.9
Denmark	4.3	2.7	2.4	1.7	1.9	1.6	4.8	4.5	4.3	-0.9	1.3	1.4	-8.0	-5.7	-3.8
Croatia	8.1	5.6	3.4	2.2	2.0	1.5	6.7	6.2	5.8	-4.1	-2.9	-2.1
Hungary	7.4	5.4	3.2	5.1	4.8	3.4	4.1	3.1	2.9	-7.5	-5.7	-3.8
Poland	4.9	5.2	4.4	5.0	5.2	2.6	3.3	3.1	3.0	-3.3	-1.8	-2.1
Romania	7.0	5.1	5.2	4.0	4.0	2.8	5.0	4.8	4.5	-8.0	-6.9	-6.3
Sweden	3.9	3.5	1.7	2.4	1.9	1.1	8.2	7.1	6.7	-0.9	0.3	0.9	-10.1	-5.5	-4.5
EU	5.0	4.3	2.5	2.6	2.5	1.6	7.1	6.7	6.5	-6.6	-3.6	-2.3
United Kingdom	6.9	4.8	1.7	2.4	3.2	2.2	4.9	4.7	4.4	-2.8	-3.0	-3.4
United States	5.8	4.5	2.4	4.3	3.3	2.2	5.5	4.2	4.0	-3.6	-3.6	-3.5
Japan	2.4	2.3	1.1	-0.5	0.2	0.4	2.8	2.6	2.4	-9.1	-5.0	-3.9
China	7.9	5.3	5.3	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:	:

Key Information

Recovery: The EU has experienced a strong recovery from the pandemic recession, with economic activity rebounding and output levels approaching pre-pandemic.
Growth Drivers: The recovery is supported by reopening of economies, strong private consumption, and fiscal stimulus.
Challenges: Supply-side bottlenecks, rising energy prices, and labour shortages are key challenges.
Fiscal Policy: The RRF and NGEU are expected to play a crucial role in supporting growth and structural reforms.
Uncertainty: Despite progress, uncertainty remains high due to pandemic developments and supply constraints.

Conclusion

The EU is on a path to economic convergence and gradual recovery, with inflation expected to decline over the next few years. However, economic risks remain, particularly from pandemic resurgence, energy price volatility, and supply-side disruptions. The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is seen as a key instrument for sustaining growth and improving productivity.