欧盟委员会-欧洲经济预测：2020年秋季版（英文）-2020.11-224页_2mb
报告摘要
European Economic Forecast Autumn 2020 Summary
Core Content
The European Economic Forecast Autumn 2020 report, published by the European Commission, provides an analysis of the economic situation and outlook for the European Union (EU) and its member states in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report outlines the economic impact of the crisis, the recovery trajectory, and the role of policy responses in shaping future growth.
Main Points
Economic Impact of the Pandemic
- The pandemic caused an unprecedented economic downturn in the first half of 2020, with real GDP in the Euro Area (EA) and the EU contracting sharply.
- The UK was among the hardest-hit economies, with a GDP contraction of -10.3% in 2020.
- Greece and Spain experienced the most severe contractions, with GDP declines of -9.0% and -12.4% respectively.
- China was an exception, with a 2.1% GDP growth in 2020, reflecting its early containment and recovery efforts.
Recovery Outlook
- The EA and EU are expected to see a recovery in 2021 and 2022, though it will be uneven across countries.
- The Euro Area is projected to contract by -7.8% in 2020, followed by a 4.2% growth in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022.
- The EU is forecast to contract by -7.4% in 2020, with a 4.1% growth in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022.
- The recovery is expected to be incomplete by 2022, with EU GDP only barely returning to pre-pandemic levels.
Key Economic Indicators
- Inflation is expected to remain low in 2020 and 2021, with the HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) projected to rise gradually.
- Unemployment is forecast to remain elevated, particularly in countries like Greece and Spain, with rates reaching 18.0% and 16.7% respectively in 2020.
- Current account balances are expected to deteriorate in 2020, with the EA projected to have a -8.8% balance, and NGEU (Next Generation EU) playing a significant role in supporting public finances.
Policy Responses
- The EU and Member States implemented unprecedented fiscal and monetary support to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic.
- The ECB and NGEU played a crucial role in stabilizing the economy, with the SURE (Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency) and PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme) being key instruments.
- The NGEU is expected to have a positive impact on GDP, with high additionality scenarios showing 5.4% growth in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022 for the EU-27.
Uncertainty and Risks
- The recovery is likely to be interrupted by the resurgence of the virus, leading to renewed lockdown measures and reduced economic activity.
- The economic impact of the pandemic will depend on the evolution of the virus, public health measures, and sectoral composition of national economies.
- The uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the EU and the UK is expected to continue, with the assumption that they will trade under WTO MFN rules from 2021 onwards.
Key Information
- GDP growth is expected to be slower than previously forecast in 2021 and 2022.
- Labour markets are expected to remain under pressure, with high unemployment rates and negative employment expectations.
- Tourism has been severely impacted, with nights spent in tourism accommodations declining significantly, especially in the EU.
- Next Generation EU (NGEU) is a key policy instrument for recovery, with a €750 billion fund allocated to support member states.
- Macroeconomic policies have been swift and substantial, contrasting with the previous crisis.
Summary of Economic Outlook
| Country | 2020 GDP | 2021 GDP | 2022 GDP | 2020 Inflation | 2021 Inflation | 2022 Inflation | 2020 Unemployment | 2021 Unemployment | 2022 Unemployment | 2020 Current Account | 2021 Current Account | 2022 Current Account | 2020 Budget Balance | 2021 Budget Balance | 2022 Budget Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | -8.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | -11.2 | -7.1 | -6.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Germany | -5.6 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -6.0 | -4.0 | -2.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Estonia | -4.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | -5.9 | -5.9 | -5.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Ireland | -2.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 8.7 | -6.2 | -6.4 | -3.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Greece | -9.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | -1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 18.0 | 17.5 | 16.7 | -6.9 | -6.3 | -3.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Spain | -12.4 | 5.4 | 4.8 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 16.7 | 17.9 | 17.3 | -12.2 | -9.6 | -8.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| France | -9.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 10.0 | -10.5 | -8.3 | -6.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Italy | -9.9 | 4.1 | 2.8 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 11.1 | -10.8 | -7.8 | -6.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Cyprus | -6.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | -6.1 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Latvia | -5.6 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | -7.4 | -3.5 | -3.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Lithuania | -2.2 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 6.9 | -8.4 | -6.0 | -2.8 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Luxembourg | -4.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 7.1 | -5.1 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Malta | -7.3 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.1 | -9.4 | -6.3 | -3.9 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Netherlands | -5.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 6.1 | -7.2 | -5.7 | -3.8 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Austria | -7.1 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | -9.6 | -6.4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Portugal | -9.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 6.6 | -8.4 | -5.4 | -4.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Slovenia | -7.1 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | -8.7 | -6.4 | -5.1 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Slovakia | -7.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 7.1 | -9.6 | -7.9 | -6.0 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Finland | -4.3 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | -7.6 | -4.8 | -3.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Euro Area | -7.8 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 8.9 | -8.8 | -6.4 | -4.7 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| EU | -7.4 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | -8.4 | -6.1 | -4.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| United Kingdom | -10.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 6.2 | -13.4 | -9.0 | -7.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Special Issues
- The road to recovery is expected to be bumpy and uncertain, influenced by pandemic developments and policy effectiveness.
- The NGEU is expected to boost growth across the EU, with high additionality scenarios showing a stronger recovery.
- The tourism sector has been hit hard, with significant declines in nights spent and reviews, particularly in tourism-dependent regions.
Conclusion
The autumn 2020 forecast highlights the severity of the economic impact of the pandemic, the uneven recovery across the EU, and the importance of policy support in stabilizing the economy. While growth is expected to resume, the recovery is likely to be incomplete and subject to ongoing uncertainty. The NGEU is seen as a key driver of recovery, and the EU remains committed to solidarity and cohesion in the face of the crisis.
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