食品饮料行业：蛋白新能源，深度探索人造肉行业革命之路-20200426-天风证券-29页_3mb

报告摘要

人造肉行业分析总结

核心内容

人造肉行业作为替代蛋白的一种，正在成为食品饮料行业的重要组成部分。随着人口增长、城市化加快以及环保和健康意识的提升，人造肉行业呈现出巨大的发展潜力。该行业主要包含植物肉、昆虫蛋白、微生物蛋白和细胞蛋白四类，其中植物肉因成本低、安全性高、环境友好，成为当前发展最为可观的品类。

主要观点

替代蛋白的优势：替代蛋白不仅能够满足健康需求，还具有环保优势，能够显著减少温室气体排放、水资源消耗和土地使用。同时，它也能解决动物疫病对人类健康的风险和畜牧业带来的高成本与高污染问题。
美国领先发展：美国在人造肉行业起步早，研发水平高，商业模式成熟，成为全球人造肉市场的主要推动者。Beyond Meat 和 Impossible Foods 是美国人造肉行业的代表企业，其产品在口感和营养方面接近传统肉类。
中国市场处于萌芽期：中国人造肉市场起步较晚，但随着消费者对植物蛋白概念的接受和绿色健康消费趋势的推动，市场正快速增长。同时，国内传统素肉企业开始转型，与国外品牌竞争，国内初创企业也迅速崛起。
技术与供应链是关键：口感和拟真度是消费者选择替代蛋白的主要因素，而稳定的供应链则是企业长期发展的保障。国内植物蛋白供应链具有成本优势，有利于人造肉行业的发展。
行业前景广阔：预计到2025年，全球植物肉市场规模将达到279亿美元，未来有望突破千亿。中国人造肉市场同样具备巨大潜力，有望在替代蛋白行业中占据一席之地。

关键信息

全球市场

全球植物肉市场规模在2019年约为121亿美元，预计以15%的复合增长率增长。
2019年，美国植物肉市场销售额达9.4亿美元，占全球植物肉市场约20%。
人造肉可减少90%的温室气体排放、46%的能源消耗和99%的水资源消耗。

中国市场

2018年中国人造肉市场规模约为61亿元人民币，同比增长14.2%。
中国人造肉市场潜力巨大，预计2030年肉类消费缺口将达3800万吨，人造肉可填补其中的10%。
消费者对植物蛋白的接受度和复购意愿高，约为90%。

行业壁垒与挑战

口感与味道：是消费者的主要选择标准，也是国内企业亟需突破的瓶颈。
渠道与认知度：当前植物肉在国内市场仍面临渠道建设不足和消费者认知度低的问题。
技术与创新：持续的技术创新是企业长青的关键，尤其是如何满足不同消费者的营养需求。
政策与环保：政策支持和环保意识的提升为行业发展提供了有利条件。

行业发展趋势

多元化产品：植物肉产品正逐步从传统的豆制品扩展至多种肉类替代品，如汉堡、香肠、肉饼等，满足不同饮食文化的需求。
渠道拓展：零售和餐饮渠道同步发力，提升植物肉的渗透率。
国际合作：国内企业与国外品牌合作，引入先进技术和产品，推动市场发展。
绿色健康消费：随着消费者对健康和环保的关注，植物性食品行业迎来风口。

风险提示

宏观经济下行风险：可能影响消费者的购买力和对人造肉的接受度。
政策风险：相关法规和标准的出台可能对行业产生影响。
食品安全风险：人造肉的生产过程需确保食品安全。
人造肉发展不及预期：技术瓶颈和市场接受度可能影响行业发展速度。

投资建议

行业评级：强于大市（维持评级）
投资前景：人造肉行业具备良好的发展前景，特别是在中国，随着消费者认知度的提高和供应链的完善，未来市场增长潜力巨大。

作者与来源

分析师：刘畅
执业证书编号：S1110520010001
联系方式：liuc@tfzq.com
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