20170914-USDA-USDA_Cotton_and_Wool_Outlook_2017.09.14_20页_861kb

Summary of Economic Research Service Outlook: Cotton and Wool (CWS-17i)

Core Content

The CWS-17i report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) provides an overview of the global and domestic outlook for cotton and wool for the 2017/18 marketing year. It includes production forecasts, consumption trends, trade estimates, and stock levels, along with insights into the factors influencing these outcomes.

Main Points

Global Cotton Production

• 2017/18 global cotton production is projected at 120.8 million bales, a 13% increase from the previous season.
• India, China, and the United States are the leading producers, accounting for 63% of global production, similar to the previous 3-year average.
• India is expected to account for 37% of the global harvested area, while the U.S. and China account for 14% and 9%, respectively.
• India's yields are projected to be about one-third below the global average of 797 kg per hectare.
• World harvested area in 2017/18 is forecast at 33 million hectares, the highest in 3 years.
• China is expected to increase its cotton area by 8%, marking the first increase since 2011/12.
• Pakistan also sees an increase in cotton area by 17%, returning to levels not seen since 2014/15.

U.S. Cotton Outlook

• The 2017 U.S. cotton crop is forecast at 21.8 million bales, a 1.2 million bale increase from the August estimate.
• Planted area increased by 4.5% in September, reaching 12.6 million acres.
• Harvested area is expected to be 11.5 million acres, up from 11.1 million in August.
• Abandonment rate is forecast at 9%, compared to 5.5% in 2016.
• National yield is projected at 908 pounds per harvested acre, a 41-pound increase from 2016 and a record.
• Upland cotton production in 2017 is forecast at 21.0 million bales, 27% above the previous season and the highest in 12 years.
• Domestic crop conditions are above the previous season and 5-year average, with 63% of the crop area rated "good" or "excellent" as of September 10.

Cotton Consumption and Trade

• Global cotton consumption for 2017/18 is projected at 117.7 million bales, a 3.6% increase from the previous season.
• The top six cotton-spinning countries (China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, Vietnam) are expected to account for 74% of world cotton mill use, slightly below the 2013-15 average.
• China is projected to account for 33% of global consumption, while India is expected to see a 4% increase to 24.5 million bales.
• U.S. exports for 2017/18 are forecast at 14.9 million bales, similar to the 2016/17 final estimate.
• U.S. cotton exports are expected to represent 39% of global exports, slightly below the 2016/17 level.

Cotton Stocks

• U.S. ending stocks for 2016/17 are estimated at 2.75 million bales, the lowest in 3 years.
• World ending stocks for 2017/18 are forecast at 92.5 million bales, a 3% increase from the beginning of the year and the first increase in 3 years.
• Global stocks-to-use ratio for 2017/18 is estimated at 79%, similar to the previous year.
• China is expected to reduce its stocks by 9 million bales to 39.5 million bales, the lowest since 2011/12.

Cotton Prices

• The 2017/18 upland cotton farm price is forecast to range between 54 and 66 cents per pound, with a midpoint of 60 cents, 8 cents below the previous season's estimate.
• The Cotlook A-Index price is expected to decrease from the 83-cent average of the previous year.

Key Information

U.S. Regional Production

• Southwest: 10.5 million bales, a 19% increase from 2016, with planted area at 7.6 million acres, the largest since 2011.
• Southeast: 5.2 million bales, above the last two seasons but similar to 2014.
• Delta: 4.4 million bales, a second consecutive year of increased area and yield.
• West: 951,000 bales, a 34% increase from 2016, with extra-long staple (ELS) cotton production at 727,000 bales, up from 569,000.

Methodology for U.S. Ending Stocks

• The U.S. Census Bureau survey was eliminated in 2011, and NASS now provides data for public storage and upland cotton mill stocks.
• The cotton ICEC uses FAS export sales data to estimate stocks in transit.
• The 2016/17 ending stocks were calculated using a combination of data sources, including BMAS, Economic Adjustment Assistance Program, and Cotton System Consumption and Stocks reports.

Conclusion

The 2017/18 global cotton production is projected to reach a 5-year high, driven by India, China, and the U.S.. U.S. production is expected to be the largest since 2005, with favorable growing conditions and increased planted area. Global consumption is also projected to rise, supported by increased demand in key countries. U.S. exports remain at a high level, while stocks are expected to increase globally, though China's stocks will decrease. The Cotlook A-Index price is expected to decline slightly, and U.S. ending stocks for the 2016/17 season are at their lowest in 3 years.

Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Leading cotton-producing countries.

• Figure 2: U.S. regional upland cotton production.

• Figure 3: U.S. cotton crop conditions.

• Figure 4: Share of total cotton consumption by major spinners.

• Figure 5: Global cotton stocks and prices.

• Table 1: U.S. cotton supply and use estimates.

• Table 2: World cotton supply and use estimates.

• Table 3: U.S. fiber supply.

• Table 4: U.S. fiber demand.

Contacts and Resources

• Leslie Meyer – ERS analyst, contact details provided.
• Subscription: Available for ERS email notifications.
• Data Sources: USDA reports, NASS, FSA, and other official agricultural statistics.
• Related Websites: Provided for further information and data access.