20150708-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_11页_369kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 8 Jul 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of oil and gas market dynamics and investment ratings for companies in Asia and related regions as of 7 July 2015. It includes price movements, recent news, and valuation data for various firms, along with analyst insights.

Key Market Movements

Brent Crude: Rose by 0.5% to USD56.85 per barrel.
WTI Crude: Fell by 0.4% to USD52.33 per barrel.
Dubai Fateh Spot: Down 2.7% at USD55.91 per barrel.
China Daqing Spot: Down 2.9% at USD52.11 per barrel.
NYMEX Henry Hub: Down 1.5% to USD2.72 per MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: ICAP's JKL 1-month forward price, unchanged at USD7.38 per MMBtu.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Up 0.2% to USD71.55 per barrel.
Gold: Down 1.3% to USD1,155.26 per ounce.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained stable at 6.21.

News Headlines

US Crude Slips Below $52:
- Prices fell for a second day due to concerns over Greece and China's stock market, technical selling, and increased Iranian supply from potential nuclear deal.
- Oil prices showed a rally after a significant selloff but remain vulnerable.
Triple Spuds Chinese CBM Well:
- Australia's Triple Energy began drilling in China's Hielongjiang province, targeting coalbed methane resources.
China Offers Fresh Onshore Acreage:
- China's upstream sector opened six new blocks in Xinjiang for public tender, signaling further reforms and opening up of resources.

Analyst Reports

Petronas Chemicals

Rating: HOLD
Price: MYR6.60
Key Points:
- Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD terms and 13% in MYR terms.
- Promising ASP outlook and weaker MYR against USD may boost earnings forecasts.
- Target price raised to MYR6.60 from MYR5.35.

NewOcean Energy

Rating: BUY
Price: HKD7.70
Key Points:
- Reiterated BUY rating; top pick in the energy space.
- Target price implies 105% upside.
- Volume and margin are on track for FY15 projections.

Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development

Rating: BUY
Price: MYR2.65
Key Points:
- Earnings expected to more than triple in 2016 with the operation of a 2 × 135 MW coal-fired power plant.
- Valuations remain attractive.

Gas Malaysia

Rating: HOLD
Price: MYR2.56
Key Points:
- FY15 spread guidance increased from MYR1.10 to MYR1.58, but down from MYR2.02.
- IBR potentially starts in Jan 2016, with possible pass-through mechanisms.
- Earnings revised by +68% / -12% / -33%; target price lowered to MYR2.65 (-12%).

Oil & Gas Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 7-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	8.40	8.30	377.0	165.4	24.4	15.2	7.4	6.0	4.2	1.0	1.8
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	6.38	7.70	136.1	140.3	17.7	12.5	6.9	6.0	5.6	1.0	2.8
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	10.52	16.80	60.6	131.3	15.3	9.5	4.5	3.5	6.3	1.0	2.3
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	305.0	NR	41.1	20.6	11.0	9.7	5.3	4.9	13.3	1.4	3.2
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,003.3	NR	51.1	66.6	13.5	12.4	11.3	9.8	11.2	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Hold	179.6	198.00	5.3	9.0	4.9	7.8	1.9	2.9	11.7	0.5	5.1
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	932.4	NR	10.6	18.5	21.5	13.2	10.6	7.9	15.2	3.2	1.6
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	824.5	NR	4.4	16.3	21.1	12.7	9.5	8.1	8.8	1.9	2.0
Petronas Gas	PTG MK	Hold	21.40	24.00	11.1	5.7	23.4	23.2	14.0	13.7	16.7	3.8	3.0
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	8.70	11.25	1.8	0.5	19.9	11.8	8.4	7.4	4.4	0.9	0.6
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	3.27	5.00	0.1	0.1	5.0	4.0	7.0	5.6	12.9	0.6	3.1
PTT Global Chemical PCL	PTTGC TB	Buy	66.8	87.00	8.9	26.1	10.8	9.5	7.1	6.5	11.6	1.2	4.2
PTT PCL	PTT TB	Buy	349.0	395.00	29.4	47.9	11.1	9.9	7.0	6.5	11.9	1.3	3.5
Thai Oil PCL	TOP TB	Sell	54.3	65.00	3.3	11.2	10.5	10.1	6.6	6.3	12.3	1.2	4.2
PetroVietnam Gas	GAS VN	Buy	65,000	92,000	5.6	1.2	12.4	11.4	6.4	5.7	26.1	3.1	4.8
Asian Oil & Gas Average	-	-	-	-	-	-	19.5	13.8	3.8	6.5	6.3	1.2	2.3

Oil-Service Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 7-Jul	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE %	P/BV (x)	Yield (%)
COSL	2883 HK	NR	10.90	NR	11.4	44.8	9.8	8.7	9.8	8.9	8.9	0.8	2.9
Barakah Offshore	BARAKAH MK	Buy	0.91	1.15	0.2	0.5	11.2	8.1	5.2	3.7	18.1	1.6	0.0
Bumi Armada	BAB MK	Buy	1.10	1.60	1.7	4.1	15.5	13.6	8.9	8.4	6.2	0.9	0.0
SapuraKencana	SAKP MK	Hold	2.31	2.80	3.6	7.5	11.4	15.4	10.2	9.9	11.0	1.2	1.9
Yinson	YNS MK	Buy	3.01	4.35	0.8	0.8	21.8	19.3	15.1	15.4	13.9	2.1	0.7
Cosco Corp	COS SP	Sell	0.47	0.43	0.8	2.0	33.6	29.4	16.5	16.1	0.7	0.8	0.0
Ezion	EZI SP	Buy	1.01	1.57	1.2	12.8	5.5	4.5	6.1	4.6	15.3	0.8	0.1
Keppel	KEP SP	Hold	8.29	8.50	11.1	30.2	9.0	8.9	9.8	9.6	15.5	1.4	5.3

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 226623 2632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 × 8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 × 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Notes

All forward-looking estimates and multiples for companies not under Maybank Kim Eng's coverage are from Bloomberg consensus.
Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.

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