2025-06-09-花旗集团-拉丁美洲食品制造商_蛋白质与农业周一图表——禽流感最新情况_短期盈利压力加剧_32页_1mb

Latin America Food Manufacturers Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the poultry, beef, pork, and grain markets in Brazil, the United States, and Australia, with a particular focus on the impact of avian flu on Brazil's poultry industry. It also includes insights on export bans, trade dynamics, pricing trends, and margin performance, offering a strategic outlook for investors.

Key Highlights

Avian Flu Impact in Brazil

• Investor Focus: Brazil's avian flu outbreak continues to dominate investor attention.
• Export Decline: Poultry exports fell by 14% YoY in May, with a 17.6% MoM decline, signaling a significant drop in export volumes.
• Price Trends: Poultry prices dropped 3.5% MoM in BRL and 1.8% MoM in USD, while domestic prices rose 1% MoM, contributing to improved spreads.
• Export Restrictions: Brazil has 23 full export bans in place, representing 40-45% of its poultry exports. These bans are primarily in regions affected by the outbreak.
• Potential Recovery: The report suggests that trade normalization could occur by June 19, provided no new outbreaks occur. It also highlights the potential for early regionalization of export bans, similar to China's response to Newcastle disease in 2024.

China's Poultry Ban

• Current Status: China has imposed a 60-day nationwide ban, set to expire on July 15.
• Regionalization Potential: There is a possibility that China may regionally lift the ban before the full 60 days, based on Brazil's 28-day monitoring period ending on June 19.
• Historical Flexibility: China has shown flexibility in past outbreaks, such as 2024's Newcastle disease, where it narrowed the ban within 26 days.

Export Data

• Brazil: Poultry export volumes fell 18% MoM and 14% YoY in May. The BRL appreciation over May further pressured profitability.
• US: Poultry exports in April reached 273KTons, one of the lowest levels in recent months. Mexico's share of US poultry exports increased to 28%, while China's share dropped to 4% from 13%, indicating trade shifts due to restrictions.

Weekly Market Trends

• Domestic Spreads: Poultry spreads fell 1.4pp in 2Q25 compared to 1Q25, while pork dropped 2.4pp and beef increased 0.2pp.
• Price Movements: Beef prices rose, but spreads contracted 56bps due to a stronger cattle price. Poultry and pork spreads contracted due to falling prices and rising corn costs.
• Volatility: The US market is experiencing volatile pricing, with beef margins sequentially lower and poultry margins showing a contraction.

US Poultry Outlook

• Price Evolution: Various poultry cuts (breast, leg quarters, tenderloins, wings) show mixed price trends, with some declining and others showing stability.
• Processor Margins: Poultry processor margins have contracted, and the report highlights the impact of corn prices on margins.
• Supply & Demand: Figures show chicken egg placements, chicks placed, and slaughter trends, indicating a potential supply adjustment in the short term.

US Beef Outlook

• Price Trends: Beef prices, including choice and select cuts, have shown varying performance. Cattle composite and dressed cattle prices are rising, but beef processor margins are under pressure.
• Supply Indicators: Cattle slaughter and feedlot placements are being monitored closely. Cold storage levels and replacement heifers are also key indicators of market trends.
• Export Trends: Net beef exports as a percentage of RTC production are being tracked to understand demand dynamics.

US Pork Outlook

• Price Movements: Pork prices have increased, but non-integrated processors are seeing margin contractions.
• Margin Trends: Pork non-integrated and integrated processors have both experienced margin declines, with the former more affected due to higher pork prices and hog prices.

US Grain Outlook

• Corn & Soybean Prices: US corn prices have decreased slightly, while soybean prices have seen a more significant decline. These trends are affecting the cost of feed for livestock producers.

Brazil Grain Outlook

• Corn & Soybean Prices: Brazil's corn prices have dropped, while soybean prices have remained relatively stable. These price movements are influencing poultry and livestock margins.

Australia Protein Outlook

• Beef & Veal Imports: Australia is a key supplier of beef and veal to the US, with price trends and demand indicators being closely monitored.
• Cattle Prices: Both Eastern and Western Young Cattle prices have shown varying performance, with lamb also experiencing price fluctuations.

Key Players & Recommendations

• JBS: Highlighted as the top pick due to its diversified revenue streams and resilience in the current market conditions.
• Valuation: A 12-month target price of R$55.0 is set for JBS, reflecting its potential for recovery in the second half of the year.

Conclusion

The report underscores the short-term earnings pressure due to avian flu and export bans, but also points to potential recovery in the second half of 2025 if conditions stabilize. JBS is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its diversified operations and ability to navigate market volatility. Investors are advised to closely monitor price trends, trade dynamics, and margin performance across the region.