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Brazil Avian Flu Update Summary

• Citi's Key Take: The avian influenza emergency in Brazil is set to end on June 19 based on containment efforts. Despite market concerns, Brazil is expected to declare freedom from the disease shortly after, potentially reopening export channels, particularly to China.

• Market Impact: Export volumes declined 12.9% YoY in May, with further declines in early June due to trade restrictions. Domestic chicken prices dropped ~7% YoY, easing inflation, while export profitability faced pressure from currency fluctuations.

• Containment Efforts: Mexico has regionalized import bans, limiting restrictions to Rio Grande do Sul. Brazil's proactive measures include culling ~17,000 birds, farm inspections, and surveillance to ensure no commercial farms are affected.

• Global Context: Brazil contributes ~35% of global poultry exports, with China as a key destination (13% of exports in 2024). Regionalization in imports may accelerate resumption, as seen in China's ability to lift restrictions in as little as 27 days post-outbreak.

• Future Outlook: Recovery could boost global poultry trade by easing supply constraints in the US and EU, though trade tensions persist. Market reopening timing depends on importing countries, with historical precedents suggesting quick adjustments post-containment.