2025-06-13-花旗集团-巴西食品制造商_拉丁美洲食品和饮料剪报-_2025_06_13_12页_358kb

Brazil and Latin America Food & Beverages Market Analysis - June 13, 2025

Citi Research Summary

Brazil News & Company Updates

1. JBS:

   • Evaluates auction for a megaterminal in Santos Port amid shipowner complaints.
   • Secured NYSE debut approval; plans to dual-list on June 12.
   • Cleared SEC approval for NYSE listing.

2. Ambev (ABEV3.SA):

   • Brazil's beer market faces inflation challenges; pricing lags inflation.
   • Argentina inflation tracker indicates reduced consumer confidence.

3. Minerva (BEEF3.SA):

   • Conducted R$1.7bn capital raise; strengthens financial position.

4. M Dias Branco (MDIA3.SA):

   • Initiates coverage with Neutral rating due to macro pressures.
   • Target price set at R$26 based on DCF analysis; key risks include commodity and pricing fluctuations.

5. Other News:

   • Government bans free-range chickens for 180 days.
   • Grain harvest for 2025 predicted at 332.6 million tons.
   • Agribusiness exports fell 1.4% YoY.

Valuation & Risks

• Alfa Sigma (ALFAA.MX):

  • Target price of P$23.5; trades at 7.5x 2026 EV/EBITDA.
  • Key risks: Economic slowdown, low liquidity, brand awareness.

• M Dias Branco (MDIA3.SA):

  • Target price of R$26; EV/EBITDA of 7x 2025.
  • Risks: Commodity volatility, pricing divergence, market consolidation.

Mexico & LatAm Updates

• Alfa Sigma (ALFAA.MX): Re-rated to "Buy" due to diversified positioning.
• Bimbo (BIMBOA.MX): Proposed Wickbold acquisition faces antitrust scrutiny.
• Avian Flu Impact: Continues to affect poultry exports and pricing.

Market Trends

• Brazil's grain harvest expected to reach a record high.
• Brazil-China trade fell 0.4% in April, amid regional slowdown concerns.
• Avian flu pressures exports, leading to ~45% volume declines.

This summary highlights key developments in key Brazilian and Latin American food and beverage companies, alongside valuation insights and risks, adhering strictly to the requested format and neutrality.