2025-06-09-花旗集团-拉丁美洲经济与战略日报_巴西潜在增税_墨西哥消费者物价指数_乌里韦遇袭_智利选举民调_17页_249kb

报告摘要

Security concerns in Columbia following President Uribe's assassination attempt.
Divergent economic data across Latin American nations.
Brazil likely increasing taxes on certain activities to manage fiscal pressures.
Cautious inflation outlook in Chile and Mexico.
Bipartisan push towards de-escalating inflammatory rhetoric in Columbia.
Focus on upcoming fiscal framework debates and elections in the region.

Finance Minister Haddad announced potential tax increases (18% on betting revenue, 5% on real estate/letter of credit transactions) to offset earlier financial operation taxes, awaiting President Lula's approval.
Central Bank signaling continued monetary tightening "for a prolonged period," emphasizing "intensity" over mere duration or neutral rate calculations.
Inflation expectations revised slightly lower for the near end of 2025 but stable for longer horizons; growth outlook modestly revised upward.

Inflation exceeded expectations in May, driven primarily by core goods (led by non-food), amplifying concerns for policy space; headline reached 4.42% YoY, core 4.06% YoY.
Formal job creation slowed sharply to 0.1% YoY (Seasonally adjusted), ending three months of expansion, with manufacturing and construction being key drags.
Expected for 2025: 50 bps rate cut by June, 25 bps by August, reaching Cete 7.75%. Core inflation's future trajectory remains a key policy concern.

President Gabriel Boric's approval rating reached 35%, its highest level; positive forward-looking sentiment is surging.
Leading presidential candidate Kast surpassed challenger Matthei with 17% lead (Cadem poll), vying for high-interest election and divergent policy styles.
President sees a potential path toward higher rates via the Fiscal Rule's escape clause this week, requiring multi-year plan adherence from the government.

Assumption leading presidential candidate Miguel Uribe is hospitalized after an alleged assassination attempt, diverting attention from public consultation debates and fueling calls to de-escalate inflammatory discourse.
Opposition lawmakers may resist government initiatives, potentially worsening attempts to rally public support, enhancing the "regime change" appeal for early supporters.
Key fiscal decision: Fiscal Policy Council considers passage of executive fiscal rule escape clause request; a no vote necessitates immediate budget cuts or extraordinary borrowing.

Headline inflation returned to negative YoY territory (-0.1%), ending consecutive monthly gains, driven by collapsed beverage prices (partly offset by transport cost rises); reflects a longer-term deflationary trend.
Core inflation flat month-on-month, remains stubbornly below the BCCR target band (2-4%), prompting delays in convergence forecasts; below-target inflation persists in the medium term.

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