20160105-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_13页_1mb

报告摘要

A-share Research Highlights Summary

Core Content

The document provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese A-share market and economic indicators as of January 2016. It includes insights on the manufacturing PMI, investment strategy, and research coverage of various sectors.

Main Points

1. China PMI Commentary (December 2015)

The CFLP PMI for December 2015 recorded at 49.6%, up 0.1 ppt MoM, reflecting improved supply and demand conditions.
Output increased to 52.2%, up 0.3 ppt MoM.
New Orders rose to 50.2%, up 0.4 ppt MoM.
New Export Orders improved to 47.5%, up 1.1 ppt MoM.
Stocks of Raw Materials increased to 47.6%, up 0.5 ppt MoM.
Purchases increased to 50.3%, up 1 ppt MoM.
Imports rose to 47.6%, up 0.9 ppt MoM.
Stocks of Finished Goods hit a low of 46.1%, indicating ongoing destocking.
Business Expectations declined to 44.6%, down 3.7 ppt MoM, reflecting pessimism about the economic outlook.
Employment dropped to 47.4%, down 0.2 ppt MoM, which was the most concerning sub-index for the market.
The capacity elimination is a key economic mission for 2016 and is seen as a major risk for SOEs due to the impact on employment.

2. Investment Strategy Weekly (January 5, 2016)

The A-share market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout 2016, primarily between 3,000 and 4,000 points.
The overall market is likely to trend upward with rotating rallies, and investors should focus on selecting suitable investment directions based on their capital nature.
Market volatility is anticipated due to factors such as regulatory warnings on venture capital, absence of RRR cut, and rebound of Treasury bond yields.
Selling pressure is expected to begin on January 8, but ample liquidity should support the market to test 4,000 points before the next US Fed rate hike and the implementation of the stock issue registration system.
No significant black swans are expected to impact the market in the near term.

3. Investment Opportunities

The market is expected to see theme-related speculative opportunities, especially in areas like military reform, consumer electronics, artificial intelligence, and SOE reform.
There are also emerging market themes and policy-related opportunities that could drive short-term gains.

Key Information

What to Watch: Economic Data

Germany (Jan 5, 2015): Unemployment Rate SA at 6.30%, Flash Inflation at 0.30%.
Euro zone: Inflation Flash at 0.30%.
U.S. (Jan 6, 2015): API weekly crude stocks, ADP National Employment at 190k, and Factory Orders at -0.2%.
China: Caixin Services PMI at 51.2, PPI YY at -5.9%, CPI YY at 1.5%, New Yuan Loans at CNY708.9bn.
U.S. (Jan 8, 2015): Non-Farm Payrolls at 200k, Private Payrolls at 184k, and Manufacturing Payrolls at -3k.
U.S. (Jan 9, 2015): Consumer Credit at 18bn.

Research Coverage List (As of January 5, 2016)

Auto & Auto Parts

Brilliance China (1114 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 8.5, Mkt cap 5,909, EPS 0.86, P/E 7.4.
China ZhengTong Auto (1728 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 6.4, Mkt cap 952, EPS 0.42, P/E 6.3.
Geely Automobile (175 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 11.4, Mkt cap 4,547, EPS 0.28, P/E 11.1.
BAIC Motor (1958 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 11.1, Mkt cap 7,535, EPS 0.56, P/E 9.4.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 7.0, Mkt cap 10,102, EPS 0.98, P/E 6.3.
Fuyao Glass (3606 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 13.2, Mkt cap 5,812, EPS 1.09, P/E 11.4.
China Harmony Auto (3836 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 10.0, Mkt cap 1,067, EPS 0.42, P/E 9.6.
Zhongsheng Group (881 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 8.9, Mkt cap 1,199, EPS 0.39, P/E 7.3.

Oil and Gas

Sinopec Oilfield Service (1033 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 70.0, Mkt cap 4,744, EPS -0.16, P/E N.A..
China Oilfield Services (2883 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 53.1, Mkt cap 4,051, EPS -0.64, P/E N.A..
Petrochina (857 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 17.6, Mkt cap 118,521, EPS 0.24, P/E 16.7.
CNOOC (883 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 9.8, Mkt cap 46,133, EPS 0.45, P/E 14.3.

Property

China Resources Land (1109 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 10.1, Mkt cap 19,268, EPS 2.14, P/E 10.1.
Yuzhou Property (1628 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 4.4, Mkt cap 984, EPS 0.44, P/E 6.4.
KWG Property (1813 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 9.6, Mkt cap 2,088, EPS 0.39, P/E 8.9.
Country Garden (2007 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 5.4, Mkt cap 8,858, EPS 0.50, P/E 5.4.
Agile Property (3383 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 14.5, Mkt cap 2,102, EPS 0.98, P/E 15.9.

Technology, Media & Telecom

China Telecom (728 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 11.7, Mkt cap 6,284, EPS 0.24, P/E 11.3.
China Unicom (762 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 13.7, Mkt cap 28,513, EPS 0.54, P/E 13.3.
China Mobile (941 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 11.8, Mkt cap 223,724, EPS 0.577, P/E 11.7.
Wisdom (1661 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 22.2, Mkt cap 1,038, EPS 0.18, P/E 14.3.
Kingdee (268 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 27.1, Mkt cap 1,112, EPS 0.10, P/E N.A..
Kingsoft (3888 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 44.4, Mkt cap 3,003, EPS 0.33, P/E 44.4.
Boyaa Interactive (434 HK): NEUTRAL, 12-month TP % Upside 9.9, Mkt cap 303, EPS 0.25, P/E 8.6.
Car Inc (699 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 4.9, Mkt cap 3,640, EPS 0.56, P/E 11.2.
Tencent (700 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 14.3, Mkt cap 35,864, EPS 0.44, P/E 11.3.
NetDragon (777 HK): BUY, 12-month TP % Upside 60, Mkt cap 40,397, EPS -0.13, P/E N.A..

Other Sectors

Machinery & Equipment: Includes companies like Zoomlion Heavy, Lonking, CRSC, and Sany Heavy with varied ratings and TP % Upside.
Pharmaceutical & Healthcare: Companies like 3SBio, TRAD CHI MED, China Medical System, and China Biologic Products show a range of ratings and price expectations.
Banking: Ratings and TP % Upside for ABC, ICBC, BOC, China Construction Bank, CITIC Bank, and others are provided.
Insurance: Companies like AIA, NCI, Ping An insurance group, and CPIC are covered with their respective ratings and TP % Upside.
Environmental Protection: Technovator (1206 HK) is highlighted with a BUY rating and TP % Upside 3.7.
Industrial Goods: TK group (2283 HK) is rated BUY with TP % Upside 9.5 and P/E 7.3.

Conclusion

The A-share market is expected to experience limited downside and rotating rallies in 2016, with speculative opportunities arising from policy themes and economic improvements. The manufacturing PMI indicates stabilization in the sector, with consumer goods and high-tech industries providing support. Capacity elimination is a key challenge, particularly for SOEs, and employment remains a concern. Investors should focus on sector-specific opportunities and manage risk effectively.