2023-10-12-IEA-2023年全球氢评估报告_176页_11mb

The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2023 examines the status and future prospects of low-emission hydrogen. Global hydrogen use is increasing but remains concentrated in refining, chemical, and steel industries, largely powered by unabated fossil fuels. Low-emission hydrogen production, through electrolysis and fossil fuels with CCUS, is growing, with over 38 Mt expected by 2030 if announced projects materialize. However, only 4% of these projects have reached final investment decision (FID), highlighting deployment challenges.

Electrolyser capacity has expanded significantly, driven by China and Europe, but cost inflation due to inflation and rising capital costs threatens project viability. Electrolysis costs could decrease by 40-50% by 2030, making hydrogen competitive in some regions. Fossil fuel-based hydrogen with CCUS also shows progress, but achieving high capture rates remains challenging.

Infrastructure development lags behind production, with pipelines and storage projects taking decades to complete. Hydrogen trade is nascent but gaining traction, with Australia and Europe as key players. However, securing off-takers and regulatory harmonization are barriers. International cooperation initiatives, such as the Green Hydrogen Catapult, aim to aggregate demand but require stronger implementation.

Government funding, including tax credits (e.g., US Inflation Reduction Act) and innovation programs, is accelerating investment. Yet, demand creation policies are lagging, with limited implementation in sectors like industry and transport. Setting binding mandates and robust incentives is crucial to stimulate adoption.

While policies and investments are increasing, there is an urgent need to address demand-side challenges, accelerate infrastructure deployment, and finalize internationally recognized certification standards to meet the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.