20250626-招银国际-卡罗特-02549.HK-Macro_risks_are_manifold_and_have_intensified_8页_1mb

CMB International Global Markets Equity Research Update on Carote Ltd (2549 HK)

• Date: 26 Jun 2025
• Previous Rating: Buy, Target Price: HK$6.44
• New Rating: HOLD, Target Price: HK$4.64

Key Reasons for Downgrade:

• Weaker-than-expected sales in 2Q25E (estimated SD growth mixture of 10% in US and negative in China) due to high sales growth bases (70% in 1Q24), declining home cooking interest, limited product launches, and competition. US tariff increases (from 25% to 50% on steel/aluminium products) significantly impact GP margin, with potential ~35% tariff pass-through.
• Revised FP: 14% sales growth (vs. previous 23%) and 33% net profit decline for FY25E due to lower demand and tariffs.

Financial Forecasts:

• FY25E: Revenue HK$2,359 mn (13.8% growth), Net Profit HK$240 mn (down 33%).
• US market: 10% sales growth from offline expansion; China market sales may decline YoY.
• GP margin revised down to 31.8% (vs. 40.3% FY24), driven by tariffs.

Valuation:

• New TP: HK$4.64 (10x FY25E P/E), vs. current price HK$5.40 (11x P/E). Downgraded FP leads to HOLD recommendation.

Disclosures: Analyst certification and standard disclaimers apply, emphasizing risks in the Chinese market and global macro factors.