IEA_世界银行-跟踪可持续发展七大目标：能源进展报告（英文）-2021.6-234页_27mb

报告摘要

Summary of Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2021

Core Content

The Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2021 is a joint publication by the five custodian agencies for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7: Affordable, Reliable, Sustainable, and Modern Energy for All. It assesses global progress toward achieving universal energy access by 2030 and highlights the challenges and opportunities for scaling up clean energy solutions. The report uses the latest data and energy scenarios to evaluate current trends and project future outcomes.

Main Objectives

To monitor and assess global progress in achieving SDG 7.
To identify gaps in access to electricity and clean cooking fuels.
To examine the role of renewable energy and energy efficiency in meeting SDG 7 targets.
To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy access and development.
To outline the financial and policy requirements for achieving SDG 7 by 2030.

Key Findings

Access to Electricity

Global Access: The share of the global population with access to electricity increased from 83% in 2010 to 90% in 2019, but 759 million people still lack access.
Sub-Saharan Africa: The region has the largest access deficit, with 570 million people without electricity in 2019. The number of people without access is expected to increase in 2020 due to the pandemic.
Annual Growth Needed: To achieve universal access by 2030, the annual growth rate must be 0.9 percentage points, higher than the 0.74 percentage points observed over the past three years.
Urban vs. Rural: In 2019, 84% of the population without electricity access lived in rural areas, while 97% of urban populations had access.
Decentralized Solutions: Off-grid solar and mini-grids have seen significant growth, with 105 million people accessing off-grid solar in 2019, up from 85 million in 2016.

Access to Clean Fuels and Technologies for Cooking

Global Access: In 2019, 66% of the global population had access to clean cooking fuels and technologies, up from 63% in 2018.
Access Deficit: 2.6 billion people still lack access to clean cooking, with 910 million in Sub-Saharan Africa alone.
Annual Growth Needed: To meet the 2030 target, the annual increase in access must be more than 3 percentage points.
Urban vs. Rural: The access gap between urban and rural populations decreased, but in Sub-Saharan Africa, the gap widened from 23 percentage points in 2010 to 29 percentage points in 2019.
Fuel Trends: Gaseous fuels (LPG, natural gas, biogas) rose from 36% in 2000 to 51% in 2019, surpassing unprocessed biomass as the dominant cooking fuel. Electricity for cooking increased from 3% to 7% over the same period, with more significant growth in urban areas.

Renewable Energy

Global Share: Renewables accounted for 17.1% of total final energy consumption in 2018, up from 16.4% in 2010.
SDG 7.2 Target: The goal is to significantly increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix.
IEA Scenario: The Stated Policies Scenario projects that 17.1% of TFEC will be from renewables in 2030, with modern renewables making up more than half of electricity supply.
IRENA Scenario: The Transforming Energy Scenario predicts 28% of TFEC will be from renewables by 2030, and 57% of power generation from renewable sources.
Solar and Wind: Both are expected to dominate renewable electricity generation in 2030.
Challenges: Renewables in transport and heat receive limited policy attention.

Energy Efficiency

SDG 7.3 Target: Increase the global rate of energy efficiency improvement to 2.6% annually by 2030, double the 1.3% rate from 1990-2010.
Primary Energy Intensity: The global rate of improvement slowed to 2% annually in 2019-2025, compared to 3% in the Sustainable Development Scenario.
Factors Affecting Efficiency: Lower fuel prices have contributed to slower improvements in energy efficiency.

International Public Financial Flows

SDG 7.a.1 Indicator: International public financial flows to developing countries for clean energy were USD 14 billion in 2018, a 35% decrease from the previous year.
Trend: Despite the decline, the overall trend over the past decade has been positive, with flows increasing threefold from 2010 to 2018.
Distribution Disparities: Financial commitments are concentrated in a few countries, with LDCs receiving only 20% of flows in 2010-2018.
Investment Needs: Renewables investment in the power sector must grow from USD 300 billion to USD 550-850 billion annually by 2030. Additional investments are needed in grid modernization and battery storage.

Outlook for SDG 7

SDG 7 Goals at Risk: The pandemic has disrupted progress, with 660 million people expected to remain without electricity access by 2030 under current policies.
Opportunities: Lower interest rates and accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies could reduce deployment costs for clean energy technologies.
Policy and Investment Needs: Governments must respond to the economic crisis with recovery packages that support a sustainable future. Fossil fuel subsidies could be phased out due to lower prices.
Call to Action: The custodian agencies urge international collaboration to safeguard existing gains, accelerate progress, and focus on vulnerable countries.

Conclusion

The 2021 Energy Progress Report highlights that the world is not on track to achieve SDG 7 by 2030, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and other vulnerable regions. It emphasizes the need for scaled-up renewable energy, improved energy efficiency, and increased international financial support to bridge the gaps. The report also underscores the importance of political commitment, policy coordination, and inclusive strategies to ensure universal access to clean and affordable energy.