2015年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Rwanda_Third_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_62页_1mb

Rwanda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI)

Core Content Summary

The IMF completed the third review of Rwanda's economic performance under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) on May 29, 2015, without holding an Executive Board meeting. The PSI was approved in December 2013. The review found that Rwanda's performance has been satisfactory, with the authorities meeting all quantitative assessment criteria. However, there were some missed structural benchmarks, particularly related to the publication of the quarterly fiscal execution report and the preparation of the mining tax proposal.

Main Challenges

• Sustaining growth: Rwanda continues to face the challenge of maintaining high growth in an environment of uncertain donor flows and avoiding the build-up of imbalances.
• Domestic revenue mobilization: Efforts to collect more revenue need to be reinvigorated, especially due to weak usage of electronic billing machines and reduced VAT receipts.
• Debt sustainability: Limited borrowing space requires careful management of public investment and the use of concessional financing.
• Export diversification: Rwanda's export base remains narrow and concentrated in commodities, necessitating strategies to diversify and improve export performance to support growth and foreign exchange inflows.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth projection: The economic outlook for 2015 is stable, with a central growth projection of 6.5 percent. Growth is expected to remain broad-based.
• Inflation: Inflation is projected to remain subdued at 3.5 percent by December 2015, below the NBR's medium-term target of 5 percent.
• Risks: External risks include adverse weather conditions, lower-than-expected export growth, and further delays in project implementation, which could reduce medium-term growth potential. The risk of export growth weakening could limit financing for imports and affect growth prospects.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The government aims to increase the revenue ratio by 0.7 percent of GDP in the FY15/16 budget through new tax measures.
• These include increasing the road fund levy, introducing an excise tax on petroleum, higher excise taxes on tobacco, and increasing the usage of electronic billing machines.
• The fiscal deficit is projected to decline to 4.6 percent of GDP in FY15/16, with a significant drop in grants (-1.5 percentage points of GDP).
• The government is adjusting spending to align with available resources, while protecting priority spending.

B. Investment, Debt Sustainability, and Export Prospects

• Rwanda's infrastructure investment needs remain significant, and the government is focusing on strengthening project selection and prioritization to maintain debt sustainability.
• The government is exploring public-private partnerships (PPPs) for sanitation, water provision, and cement to support infrastructure development.
• The non-concessional borrowing ceiling was raised to US$500 million to accommodate new projects.
• The export base is narrow and concentrated in commodities, requiring diversification to improve resilience and foreign exchange inflows.
• The government is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy to improve traditional export receipts and expand into new markets.

C. Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate, and the Financial Sector

• The current monetary policy stance is appropriate, with the policy rate maintained at 6.5 percent since June 2014.
• Broad money growth is projected at 15.6 percent for 2015, while private sector credit growth remains stable.
• The NBR is increasing the maturity of bond issuance to develop the financial sector and absorb excess liquidity.
• Efforts to improve the regulatory framework and financial inclusion are ongoing, with a focus on strengthening the supervisory oversight of the financial sector.
• The consolidation of SACCOs into a single cooperative bank is expected to improve financial oversight and services.

D. Program Issues

• The authorities requested modifications to the end-June 2015 quantitative assessment criteria (QACs) and indicative targets, which were supported by the staff.
• The introduction of a fixed asset tax was redesigned into a land tax with specific benchmarks to improve implementation.
• The government is seeking to strengthen the monitoring of donor-financed projects to improve budget tracking and fiscal transparency.

Key Documents and Information

• Staff Report: Completed on May 12, 2015, based on discussions ending on April 3, 2015.
• Documents released separately: Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding.
• Transparency Policy: The IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and the suppression of policy intentions in published reports.
• Public Access: Copies of the report are available from the IMF Publication Services.
• Price: $18.00 per printed copy.

Supporting Boxes and Figures

• Box 1: Performance contracts (Imihigo) are used to improve accountability and service delivery. However, challenges remain in monitoring and setting realistic targets.
• Box 2: Export performance significantly affects growth and foreign exchange availability. A decline in export growth could reduce import coverage and growth potential.
• Box 3: Financial inclusion is a key priority, with the government promoting access through cooperatives, microfinance institutions, and new financial products.
• Box 4: Aid effectiveness is linked to the use of national systems, and Rwanda is working to improve the tracking and monitoring of donor-financed projects.
• Figures: Include economic developments, inflation trends, monetary indicators, and debt sustainability scenarios.

Conclusion

Rwanda's economic performance under the PSI has been satisfactory, with the government meeting all quantitative assessment criteria. However, challenges remain in terms of structural benchmarks, export diversification, and fiscal management. The government is committed to a prudent approach, focusing on strengthening public financial management, improving domestic revenue mobilization, and increasing private sector participation in infrastructure development. The outlook remains stable, but external risks, particularly related to export performance and donor disbursements, need to be closely monitored.