2024-08-26-世界经济论坛-SAF85技术简报_航空部门（英）_23页_8mb

SAF85 Technical Brief: Aviation Sector Summary

Overview of FMC Aviation Commitment

• FMC aviation members commit to using sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) by 2030 with at least an 85% reduction in lifecycle GHG emissions compared to conventional jet fuel.
• CORSIA (ICAO’s carbon offset scheme) is the default framework for emissions measurement, but other frameworks like GREET and RED II are compatible.
• SAF pathways must meet a lifecycle carbon intensity threshold of ≤13.35 gCO₂e/MJ.

Key SAF Pathways and Their Potential to Meet the FMC Threshold

1. Bio-based Pathways

• Gasification Fischer-Tropsch (GFT): High potential if feedstock is >95% biogenic and exhibits positive/negative ILUC. Low potential for 1G feedstocks but requires project-level LCA.
• HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids): Generally does not meet threshold due to feedstock limitations or positive ILUC.
• Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ): High potential for ethanol and isobutanol pathways with low-carbon feedstocks (e.g., miscanthus). E-methanol pathway approved by 2030.

2. Power-to-Liquids (PtL)

• High potential: Requires green/green-like hydrogen (H₂), CO₂ capture, and renewable electricity.
• Key questions: CO₂ sourcing (DAC or point-source), hydrogen production (green via eletrolysis), and renewable electricity supply.
• LCA required: Ensures final carbon intensity ≤13.35 gCO₂e/MJ.

3. Other Feedstocks

• Miscanthus: High potential due to negative ILUC emissions and soil carbon sequestration.
• Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) to SAF: Under investigation but may meet threshold with low-carbon conversion processes.

Additional Factors Influencing Compliance

• Carbon Capture (CCUS): Reduces emissions but implementation is limited in existing pathways.
• Land-Use Change (ILUC): Projects must calculate ILUC emissions, which vary by feedstock. Reduces pathways’ potential if associated with high ILUC.
• Regulatory Frameworks: CORSIA is the primary benchmark, but other frameworks (e.g., RED II, UK SAF Mandate) have stricter emission reduction targets but similar calculation methodologies.

Guidance for SAF Procurement

FMC members should:

• Use a project-level LCA with CORSIA/Similar frameworks to confirm SAF meets the threshold.
• Consider additionality of renewable electricity (if not already covered).
• Prioritize pathways with green H₂, low-carbon CO₂, and sustainable feedstocks.

Key Recommendations

• Economic Considerations: PtL and other carbon-intensive pathways require renewable electricity and high-carbon-emitting inputs; consult GREET for alignment with U.S. SAF tax credits.
• Technology Development: Monitor co-location of production steps to reduce carbon intensity.
• Certification: Ensure adherence to ASTM standards and recognized EFUE/CORSIA frameworks for legality and sustainability.

Contributors and Support

• Authors: BCG consultancy team, World Economic Forum’s Net Zero initiative partners.
• References: CORSIA, European Commission’s RED II directive, UK SAF Mandate, GREET model.