期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1980_28页_660kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Spring 1980

Core Content

The NBER Reporter from Spring 1980 provides an overview of the Bureau's research program in Financial Markets and Monetary Economics. It highlights several key projects and studies conducted by NBER researchers, focusing on the evolving roles of debt and equity financing, the structure of interest rates, and the impact of public policy on housing and capital formation.

Main Research Projects

1. The Changing Roles of Debt and Equity Financing

• Objective: To understand how debt and equity financing influence U.S. capital formation and financial stability in the context of inflation, tax incentives, intermediation, and regulatory constraints.
• Key Findings:
  • The structure of taxation and risk premiums significantly affect the debt-equity ratio.
  • The efficiency costs of tax incentives for increasing debt-equity ratios are estimated at $3–6 billion annually, or 10% of corporate tax revenues.
  • Debt-equity ratios have increased steadily from World War II until 1974, then declined slightly.
  • Accelerating inflation has distorted household savings incentives, pushing small savers toward tangible assets and large savers toward stocks and bonds.
  • The taxation of business profits and private returns to investment is critical in shaping capital formation and public policy.

2. The Structure of Interest Rates

• Objective: To investigate how interest rates are determined through expectations and supply-demand dynamics.
• Key Findings:
  • Efficient markets do not prevent economic agents from forecasting short-term interest rate movements.
  • Long-term interest rates are less predictable due to minimal ex ante changes in expectations.
  • James Pesando's paper on forecasting interest rates from an efficient markets perspective is highlighted as a key contribution.
  • The analysis suggests that short-term movements in long-term interest rates are difficult to forecast accurately.

3. The Determination of Long-Term Interest Rates

• Objective: To explore the role of long-term capital markets in influencing both financial markets and nonfinancial economic activity.
• Key Findings:
  • Interest rates are determined by supply and demand in the bond market.
  • Factors such as price inflation, cash flows, and external funds requirements influence these rates.
  • Benjamin Friedman is extending his analysis to federal government securities.

4. The Individual Investor in the Corporate Equity Market

• Objective: To study the behavior of individual investors in corporate equities, including trading behavior, portfolio performance, and contributions to market liquidity and efficiency.
• Key Findings:
  • Most prior research has focused on institutional investors and large corporations.
  • Wilbur Lewellen is examining the role of individual investors, especially in small and large firms.
  • Insights from this research aim to inform public policy decisions on market structure, brokerage commissions, and corporate disclosure requirements.

5. Speculative and Obligational Markets and the Business Cycle

• Objective: To analyze the behavior of speculative and obligational markets in relation to macroeconomic fluctuations.
• Key Findings:
  • Speculative markets (e.g., stock market) are impersonal and continuously clear.
  • Obligational markets (e.g., labor market) are relational and often do not clear.
  • Robert Shiller is developing a theoretical model of speculative markets where prices are not "efficient" due to limited resources of "smart money".
  • He is also exploring the macroeconomic implications of new theories of human behavior and private law in obligational markets.

Research Summaries

1. Inflation, Housing, and Productivity

• Author: Patric H. Hendershott
• Key Points:
  • Inflation has stimulated housing demand and depressed corporate capital demand.
  • The user cost of capital for owner-occupied housing is lower due to tax benefits.
  • In 1964 and 1978, user costs for housing dropped significantly, while those for corporate structures increased.
  • The CPI overstates inflation due to inadequate measurement of housing costs.
  • Productivity losses from misallocating capital to housing are enormous, estimated at $300 billion in present value terms.

2. The Federal Income Tax and Housing

• Author: Harvey S. Rosen
• Key Points:
  • The federal tax system subsidizes owner-occupied housing through deductions on mortgage interest and property taxes, and exclusion of imputed rent.
  • This subsidy is controversial and has led to proposals for modification or elimination.
  • The tax treatment of housing has distorted capital allocation, favoring housing over corporate investment.

Key Information

• NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• The project on debt and equity financing is a major focus of the program and will be part of the 1980 Summer Institute and a conference in 1981.
• Financial markets are essential for economic interactions, enabling saving, investing, and retirement.
• Public policy must consider both the amount and structure of taxation to promote capital formation and financial stability.
• Inflation has had a dual impact on the economy, stimulating housing demand while discouraging corporate investment.

Conclusion

The Spring 1980 NBER Reporter underscores the complex interplay between financial markets and nonfinancial economic activity, particularly in the context of inflation, taxation, and public policy. The research conducted by NBER highlights the need for a better understanding of financial behavior and its macroeconomic implications, with a particular focus on housing, equity and debt financing, and interest rate structures. The findings suggest that current tax and financial policies may be distorting capital allocation, leading to significant productivity losses and financial instability.