2025-04-29-Jefferies-Welltower（WELL）_2025年第一季度速评_-_2025年第一季度业绩超预期；2025财年指引上调且超预期；SHOP表现出色_8页_132kb

1Q25 Quick Take Summary - Welltower (WELL)

Core Content

Welltower (WELL) reported 1Q25 normalized FFO/sh of $1.20, which beat the Street and JEF estimates by +5c. The company also raised its FY25 guidance to $4.97 at the midpoint, exceeding Street/JEF estimates by +0.8% to +1.0%. This increase was primarily attributed to investment and financing activities (+7c) and SHOP performance (+2c).

Key Financial Highlights

• SHOP SS NOI growth in 1Q25 reached +21.7%, surpassing the prior guidance midpoint of +18.0%.
• Occupancy increased by +400 bps in 1Q25, compared to +310 bps in the previous quarter, with a sequential increase of +60 bps.
• REVPOR rose by +5.9%, up from +5.0% in the prior quarter.
• OpEx increased by +5.4%, driven by stronger occupancy growth.
• Senior Housing NNN SS NOI growth of +5.1% exceeded the prior midpoint of +3.5%.
• Long-Term/Post-Acute SS NOI growth of +2.8% beat the prior midpoint of +2.5%.
• Outpatient Medical SS NOI growth of +2.7% also outperformed the prior midpoint of +2.5%.

Investment Activity

• $2.8B in investments were completed in 1Q25, including:
  • $1.15B in SHOP acquisitions
  • $1.16B in long-term/post-acute care acquisitions
• Yields on total acquisitions and loan funding were 7.7%.
• $504M in dispositions were made, yielding 7.8%.

Acquisition Outlook

• WELL is in negotiations to acquire the Amica portfolio for C$4.6B, including C$560M of CMHC insured debt at 3.6% interest rate.
• The portfolio comprises 31 in-place properties and 7 under construction, with the acquisition expected to close in late 2025 or early 2026.

Valuation and Ratings

• Investment rating: Buy
• Price target: $165.00 (+11% above current price of $149.05)
• Net debt to adjusted EBITDA: 3.33x
• 52-week high-low: $158.55 - $93.72
• Market Cap: $96.6B
• Float: 100.4%, ADV MM (USD): 523.08

Analysts

• Jonathan Petersen and Joe Dickstein, both Equity Analysts at Jefferies, provided the analysis.
• Contact details:
  • Jonathan Petersen: (212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.com
  • Joe Dickstein: +1 (212) 778-8771 | jdickstein1@jefferies.com

Risks and Outlook

• Downside risks include a more challenging senior housing supply outlook and increased headline risk from skilled nursing facilities.
• Upside risks include accretive acquisitions and long-term interest rates staying lower for longer.
• The positive outlook is due to the company's strong performance and revised guidance, indicating confidence in future results.

Company Overview

Welltower, Inc. is an S&P 500 company based in Toledo, Ohio, operating as a REIT that invests in senior housing and healthcare real estate, along with property management and development services.

Rating and Price Target History

• The rating and price target history for WELL is shown in a chart, indicating previous rating actions over the past three years.
• Distribution of ratings includes:
  • BUY: 60.78%
  • HOLD: 34.70%
  • UNDERPERFORM: 4.52%

Important Disclosures

• Conflicts of interest: Jefferies may have investment banking relationships with companies covered in the report, which may affect objectivity.
• No personalized or tailored research: All research is impersonal.
• Use of this report: It is intended as a single factor in making investment decisions and is not investment advice.
• Legal and jurisdictional restrictions apply, depending on the location of the investor.

Forward-Looking Statements

• The report includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.
• Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the report.

Conclusion

WELL delivered strong results in 1Q25, with normalized FFO/sh beating estimates and revised FY25 guidance reflecting optimism about future performance. The SHOP segment played a significant role in the outperformance, with improved NOI growth and occupancy levels. The positive outlook and Buy rating suggest favorable investment potential.