2025-06-02-Jefferies-5月EIM_MM和TVS表现出色_10页_579kb

Summary of EIM, MM and TVS Performance in May

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the performance of various Indian automotive companies in May, focusing on wholesale and registration growth across different segments. It highlights the leading performers and laggards, along with market share changes in electric vehicles (EVs) and other segments. The report also includes investment recommendations and analyst certifications.

Main Points

1. Segment Performance

• Two-Wheeler (2W) Industry:

  • Wholesales: Rose modestly by 3% YoY.
  • Registrations: Grew by 8% YoY.
  • OEM Performance:
    • TVSL and EIM (Royal Enfield) outperformed with 14-19% YoY growth.
    • AL/BJAUT saw decent growth of 5-8% YoY.
    • HMCL/MSIL and Honda had weaker growth (2-7% YoY).
    • EVs in 2W registrations: Increased by 60 basis points (bps) MoM to 6.1% in May.
    • E2W market share: TVSL and BJAUT led with 22-24% share.

• Passenger Vehicles (PVs) Industry:

  • Wholesales: Fell by ~1% YoY.
  • Registrations: Also declined by ~1% YoY.
  • OEM Performance:
    • MM showed strong growth with 21% YoY increase in domestic PVs.
    • HYUNDAI and TTMT lagged with 8-9% YoY decline.
    • BEVs in PV registrations: Rose by 60 bps MoM to 4.1% in May.
    • EV market share: TTMT remained the leader (35-54%), while MG and MM gained share (31% and 21%, respectively).

• Tractors:

  • Wholesales: Grew by ~8% YoY.
  • Registrations: Rose by 2% YoY.
  • MM outperformed with 10% YoY growth.

• Trucks:

  • Wholesales: Rose by ~3% YoY.
  • Registrations: Fell by 7% YoY.

2. Key Companies and Their Performance

• EIM (Royal Enfield):

  • Wholesales: Grew by 15-26% YoY.
  • Registrations: Rose by 18-21% YoY.
  • Market Share in EVs: 31% in May.

• TVS Motor (TVSL):

  • Wholesales: Grew by 17% YoY.
  • Registrations: Rose by 21% YoY.
  • Market Share in EVs: 22-24% in 2Ws.

• Mahindra & Mahindra (MM):

  • Wholesales: Grew by 15-26% YoY.
  • Registrations: Rose by 15-21% YoY.
  • Market Share in PVs: Retained #2 position for second consecutive month.
  • Market Share in EVs: 21% in May.

• Hero Motocorp (HMCL):

  • Wholesales: Rose by 2% YoY.
  • Registrations: Grew by 66% MoM.
  • Market Share in EVs: 5% in May.
  • Performance: Underperformed with 2% YoY growth.

• Bajaj Auto (BJAUT):

  • Wholesales: Rose by 8% YoY.
  • Registrations: Grew by 5% YoY.
  • Market Share in EVs: 19% in May.

• Maruti Suzuki (MSIL):

  • Wholesales: Rose by 1% YoY.
  • Registrations: Grew by 3% YoY.
  • Market Share in EVs: Yet to start selling BEVs.

• Hyundai India (HYUNDAI):

  • Wholesales: Declined by 11% YoY.
  • Registrations: Fell by 10% YoY.
  • Market Share in EVs: 5% in May.

• Tata Motors (TTMT):

  • Wholesales: Declined by 8-9% YoY.
  • Registrations: Fell by 8-9% YoY.
  • Market Share in EVs: 35% in May.

3. Investment Recommendations

• Top Buys: MM, EIM, and TVSL.
• Hold: Bajaj Auto (BJAUT), Maruti Suzuki (MSIL).
• Underperform: Hero Motocorp (HMCL), Hyundai India (HYUNDAI), Tata Motors (TTMT).

4. Market Trends

• EV Growth:
  • In 2Ws, EVs accounted for 6.1% of registrations in May, up from 4-7% since April 2022.
  • In PVs, BEVs reached 4.1% of registrations in May, driven by new launches from MM and MG.
• Export Growth:
  • TVSL and BJAUT reported strong export growth (20-21% YoY).
  • TTMT saw significant export growth (80% YoY).
• Market Share Shifts:
  • TTMT lost market share in EVs, slipping from 71% in FY24 to 35% in May.
  • MG and MM gained share in EVs.
  • Ola lost E2W market share from 49% in 1QFY25 to 18-21% in April-May.

Key Information

• Total Industry Growth:
  • 2Ws and tractors showed positive growth, while PVs and trucks experienced declines.
• Company-Specific Insights:
  • MM and EIM continue to lead in PV and 2W registrations.
  • TVSL and BJAUT led in 2W exports.
  • TTMT remains the top EV seller in PVs, though its market share has decreased.
• Valuation Methodology:
  • Ratings are based on market capitalization, growth, volatility, and expected total return over the next 12 months.
  • Price targets are calculated using various methods such as DCF, EV/EBITDA, and P/E ratios.
• Disclosure:
  • Analysts may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships.
  • The report is for general circulation and not tailored to individual investors.

Conclusion

The Indian automotive industry in May showed mixed performance across segments, with EIM, MM, and TVSL outperforming in both wholesales and registrations. The growth in EVs was notable, particularly in the 2W segment, where TVSL and BJAUT led. However, PVs and trucks faced declines, with HYUNDAI and TTMT lagging. MM retained its position as the second-largest OEM in PVs, and the report recommends MM, EIM, and TVSL as top buys. Investors are advised to consider the report as one of many factors in their decision-making process.