2023-07-25-纽约联储-核心工资通货膨胀的一种衡量方法_44页_5mb

This paper introduces a new measure of core wage inflation, Core CPS Wage Inflation (CoWI), using monthly worker-level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The authors combine worker-level data with time-series smoothing methods and dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters to disentangle persistent wage inflation from transitory shocks and industry-specific effects. Key findings include that the persistent component of wage inflation is predominantly driven by a common factor across industries and workers, accounting for 75–90% of the post-pandemic wage inflation surge. This common factor explained over 80% of wage growth fluctuations across various worker characteristics (e.g., industry, education, gender) during inflationary periods like the 2021 surge. CoWI, by filtering out short-term noise, provides reliable signals for wage inflation turning points and outperforms random walk forecasts in real-time forecasting exercises, especially over horizons of 3–6 months. The model shows that wage growth heterogeneity at the micro level (e.g., by industry or demographic groups) has limited importance for aggregate wage inflation dynamics during major macroeconomic events, likely due to persistent common drivers. The analysis underscores the significance of CoWI as a robust indicator for both labor market monitoring and monetary policy.