IMF-疫情和能源冲击后的欧元区通货膨胀：进口价格、利润和工资（英）-2023.6-22页_1mb
报告摘要
- The IMF Working Paper analyzes Euro Area inflation following the pandemic and energy shock, highlighting that import prices and domestic profits are key drivers of inflation, with wages playing a lesser role.
- A novel decomposition of the consumption deflator shows import prices accounting for 40% of inflation, domestic profits for 45%, and labor costs for 25% between 2022Q1 and 2023Q1.
- Firms passed on cost shocks through price increases, but data suggests no broad-based rise in profitability, with factors like sticky wages and supply-demand mismatches explaining the inflation dynamics.
- For the inflation outlook, nominal wage growth of around 4.5% over 2023-24, along with profit shares normalizing to historical averages, could facilitate disinflation by mid-2025, assuming stable labor productivity.
- Policy implications emphasize the importance of monitoring market power and using monetary policy to anchor expectations and support relative price adjustments for disinflation.
- The paper is part of IMF working papers, which present research for debate and reflect authors' views, not necessarily official IMF positions.
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