20171114-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2017.11.14_13页_245kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and global outlook for oil crops, including soybeans, peanuts, and other related commodities, for the 2017/18 marketing year. It includes forecasts for production, exports, domestic use, and prices, along with regional updates and supply-demand dynamics.

Main Views and Key Information

U.S. Soybeans Outlook

• Yield Forecast: The 2017/18 soybean yield is forecast at 49.5 bushels per acre, slightly down from the previous month.
• Harvested Area: Unchanged at 89.5 million acres.
• Total Production: Reduced by 5 million bushels to 4.425 billion bushels.
• Season-Ending Stocks: Forecast at 425 million bushels, down from the previous estimate.
• Farm Price Outlook: Season-average farm price is seen slightly higher at $8.45–$10.15 per bushel.
• Export Sales: U.S. export sales started briskly in September–October 2017 but lagged last year's pace.
• Export Commitments: As of November 2, export sales commitments were 15% lower than a year ago.
• Brazil's Impact: Brazil's increased soybean area by 200,000 hectares to 34.9 million, expected to raise production by 1 million metric tons to 108 million, supporting a 1 million ton increase in exports to 65 million tons in 2017/18.
• Price Dynamics: Brazil's soybean prices have risen due to declining stocks and a weaker currency, potentially affecting global price competitiveness.

Domestic Crush and Use

• Soybean Crush: Forecast unchanged at 1,940 million bushels.
• Soybean Meal Use: Increased to 34.3 million short tons, with prices expected to hover at $295–$335 per short ton.
• Soybean Oil Use: Increased by 79 million pounds to 1.616 billion pounds, with prices forecast unchanged at 32.5–36.5 cents per pound.
• Harvest Progress: As of November 5, 90% of the U.S. soybean harvest was completed, slightly behind the 5-year average.

U.S. Peanuts Outlook

• Production Forecast: Revised down by 2% to 7.64 billion pounds, due to slightly lower yields.
• Yield: Reduced to 4,176 pounds per acre, the second-highest yield ever after 2012/13.
• Season-Ending Stocks: Expected to increase to 2.55 billion pounds, up from 1.44 billion in 2016/17.
• Harvest Progress: 82% of the peanut crop was harvested as of November 5.

Global Outlook

• Brazil's Production: Increased by 1 million metric tons to 108 million, with exports expected to rise to 65 million tons in 2017/18.
• China's Imports: Raised forecast by 2 million tons to 97 million, driven by an expected 8% increase in soybean meal consumption.
• Argentina's Sunflowerseed: Planting delayed due to wet soils, with area sown expected to increase by 1.8 million hectares, still above the previous year's level.
• Ukraine's Sunflowerseed: Production forecast reduced by 200,000 tons to 3.8 million, due to lower yields, potentially impacting exports of sunflowerseed oil.

Key Tables and Data

• Table 1: U.S. soybean supply and disappearance for the 2017/18 marketing year.
• Table 2: U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance.
• Table 3: U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance.
• Table 4: U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance.
• Table 5: U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance.
• Table 6: U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance.
• Table 7: U.S. peanut supply and disappearance.
• Table 8: Oilseed prices received by U.S. farmers.

Summary

The report highlights a slight decline in U.S. soybean yield, with production and stocks forecast to decrease. Brazil's increased production and exports are expected to compete with U.S. soybeans, while China's demand for soybeans and soybean meal continues to drive import growth. Argentina and Ukraine face challenges in sunflowerseed production due to weather conditions, affecting global supply dynamics. Peanuts show a slight decline in U.S. production but are still expected to set a new record. Domestic crush and use of soybean products are anticipated to increase slightly, with prices showing some resilience.