20170914-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook2017.09.14_14页_288kb

报告摘要

Oil Crops Outlook Summary (OCS-17i)

Core Content

This report outlines the U.S. and global outlook for oil crops, including soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, cottonseed, and peanuts, for the 2017/18 marketing year. It highlights production forecasts, export expectations, domestic use, and market price trends, as well as the impact of weather events on crop conditions.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Outlook

Yield Forecast: The 2017/18 U.S. soybean yield is forecast at 49.9 bushels per acre, up from 49.4 bushels per acre in August.
Production Forecast: Total production is expected to reach 4.431 billion bushels, up by 50 million bushels.
Exports Forecast: Soybean exports are forecast at 2.25 billion bushels, up by 25 million bushels from the previous month.
Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks are forecast unchanged at 475 million bushels.
Price Forecast: The average price range for 2017/18 soybeans is $8.35-$10.05 per bushel, a 10-cent decrease from the previous forecast.

U.S. Soybean Oil Outlook

Domestic Use Forecast: U.S. domestic use of soybean oil is forecast at 7 billion pounds, up by 550 million pounds.
Exports Forecast: Soybean oil exports are forecast at 2.1 billion pounds, down from 2.55 billion pounds in 2016/17.
Price Forecast: The average price for soybean oil is raised to 32.5-36.5 cents per pound, up from 31-35 cents per pound.

U.S. Soybean Meal Outlook

Domestic Use Forecast: Domestic use of soybean meal is forecast at 34,200 million bushels, up from 33,150 million bushels in the previous year.
Exports Forecast: Soybean meal exports are forecast at 12,200 million bushels, up from 11,750 million bushels.
Ending Stocks: Ending stocks are forecast at 300 million bushels, down from 325 million bushels.

U.S. Cottonseed Outlook

Production Forecast: Cottonseed production for 2017/18 is forecast at 6.9 million short tons, up from 6.5 million short tons.
Crush Forecast: The 2017/18 crush is forecast at 2.4 million tons, up from 1.76 million tons in 2016/17.
Exports Forecast: Cottonseed exports are forecast at 3,950 million short tons.
Ending Stocks: Ending stocks are forecast at 557 million short tons.

U.S. Peanut Outlook

Production Forecast: Peanut production for 2017/18 is forecast at 7.78 billion pounds, up from 6.5 billion pounds.
Ending Stocks: Season-ending stocks are forecast to reach a 5-year high of 2.7 billion pounds.
Impact of Weather: Hurricane Irma in early September caused heavy rainfall in the Southeast, affecting peanut harvests. Only 3% of the U.S. peanut crop had been harvested by September 10, and 72% of the total acreage is in the states of Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Future Survey: USDA will resurvey peanut harvested acreage estimates in October.

Key Information

Global Soybean Production: Forecast at 348.4 million metric tons, up 1.1 million metric tons from the previous month.
China's Soybean Imports: Forecast to increase to 95 million tons in 2017/18, up from 94 million tons.
Biodiesel Impact: The preliminary countervailing duties on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia are expected to reduce imports and increase domestic use, which in turn supports soybean oil prices.
Ukraine Sunflowerseed Crop: Forecast to decrease by 500,000 tons to 14 million tons due to drought in July and August.
Argentina Sunflowerseed Planting: Expected to increase by 300,000 hectares to 1.9 million hectares, potentially replacing Ukraine's sunflowerseed oil exports.
Weather Impact: Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma caused storm damage to cotton and peanut crops, with full damage assessments pending until October and March 2018, respectively.

Summary of Market Trends

Soybean Yields: Increased modestly due to August rains, leading to higher production.
Soybean Exports: Forecast to increase due to higher supply, but ending stocks remain unchanged.
Soybean Oil Prices: Strengthened due to increased biodiesel demand, but exports may be constrained.
Soybean Meal Prices: Forecast to increase slightly.
Cottonseed Production: Expected to reach an 11-year high due to higher yields and harvested area.
Peanuts: Production is expected to be record high, with ending stocks at a 5-year high, though weather damage may affect the forecast.

Tables Summary

Table 1: Shows U.S. soybean supply and disappearance for 2015/16 to 2017/18, with ending stocks and production figures.
Table 2: Provides U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance data, including domestic use, exports, and ending stocks.
Table 3: Summarizes U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance, including biodiesel use, food and other use, and ending stocks.
Table 4: Includes U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance data for 2015/16 to 2017/18.
Table 5: Shows U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance data.
Table 6: Provides U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance data.
Table 7: Summarizes U.S. peanut supply and disappearance for the 2017/18 crop year.

Conclusion

The report indicates a modest increase in U.S. soybean yields and production, with soybean oil prices strengthening due to biodiesel demand. However, weather-related damage in the Southeast and Texas could impact peanut and cottonseed supplies. China's strong demand for soybeans is expected to drive U.S. and Brazilian exports, while Ukraine's reduced sunflowerseed crop may encourage increased planting in Argentina. Overall, abundant supplies are expected to limit price increases, but domestic use and weather-related disruptions could affect market dynamics.