2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Kurdistan_Region_of_Iraq___Assessing_the_Economic_and_Social_Impact_of_the_Syrian_Conflict_and_ISIS_193页_5mb

Summary of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq: Assessing the Economic and Social Impact of the Syrian Conflict and ISIS

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), assesses the economic and social impact of the Syrian conflict and the rise of ISIS on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). It provides a stabilization cost analysis for 2015 based on three scenarios, detailing the effects on public services, infrastructure, and the overall economy.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic and Fiscal Impact of the Conflict

• The KRI faced a significant decline in fiscal transfers from the central government in Baghdad, dropping by about 90% in early 2014 due to political gridlock.
• The combined impact of the refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) crisis, along with the ISIS conflict, led to a 5 percentage point decline in GDP growth from 8% in 2013 to 3% in 2014.
• The refugee and IDP influx significantly affected the KRI economy, including a slowdown in wage incomes, profits, consumption, and investment.
• The stabilization cost for the baseline scenario in 2015 is estimated at $1.4 billion, which is 5.6% of non-oil GDP.

2. Social Development Impact of the Conflict

• Health Sector: The health system faced substantial strain, with increased demand for services and a significant rise in recurrent and capital expenditures. The number of hospital beds and health infrastructure were insufficient to meet the needs.
• Education Sector: The influx of refugees and IDPs increased the demand for education, leading to higher spending on teacher salaries, school materials, and school rehabilitation.
• Food Security and Agriculture: The crisis affected agricultural livelihoods, with a significant portion of the stabilization cost allocated to supporting food security.
• Poverty and Welfare: The poverty rate in the KRI increased from 3.5% in 2012 to 8.1% in 2014. Additional resources are needed to support social assistance and labor programs.
• Housing and Shelter: Over 1.5 million refugees and IDPs were hosted in the KRI by early 2015, with a large proportion concentrated in Dohuk. The housing sector required substantial investment to accommodate the influx.
• Social Cohesion and Citizen Security: The presence of a large number of refugees and IDPs in the same communities strained local resources and affected social cohesion.

3. Impact on Infrastructure

• Water and Sanitation: The demand for water increased significantly, with stabilization costs for water and sanitation services reaching up to $271.8 million in the high scenario.
• Solid Waste Management: The sector faced increased pressure, requiring additional current and capital spending.
• Electricity: The electricity sector experienced a major impact, with stabilization costs reaching up to $402.6 million in the high scenario. The KRG's commitment to fixed pricing for electricity supply exacerbated the financial burden.
• Transportation: The crisis disrupted trade routes, leading to a shift in transportation patterns and increased costs for road maintenance and infrastructure.

Key Findings

• The KRI's population increased by 28% due to the influx of refugees and IDPs by early 2015.
• 60% of the total IDPs and refugees were located in Dohuk.
• The refugee and IDP crisis placed substantial pressure on the social sectors, necessitating additional resources to maintain public services.
• The fiscal crisis led to a sharp decline in local revenues and increased borrowing from the private sector, creating a quasi-fiscal deficit of $3 billion.
• The stabilization cost for human development and infrastructure was estimated at $1,381.5 million in the baseline scenario, $1,830.4 million in the low scenario, and $2,489.5 million in the high scenario.

Sectoral Stabilization Costs

Conclusion

The report highlights the severe economic and social consequences of the Syrian conflict and ISIS on the KRI. The region is experiencing a multifaceted crisis that has strained its fiscal and social systems. To manage these impacts, the KRG requires significant additional resources to restore public services and infrastructure. The stabilization costs are substantial and vary depending on the number of refugees and IDPs. The study serves as a technical basis for policy decisions and resource allocation in the KRI.