2017年-世界发展银行全球_The_Toll_of_War___The_Economic_and_Social_Consequences_of_the_Conflict_in_Syria_148页_16mb

Summary of The Economic and Social Consequences of the Conflict in Syria

Core Content

This report, published in 2017 by the World Bank, provides a comprehensive assessment of the economic and social consequences of the Syrian conflict as of early 2017. It highlights the devastating impact of the conflict on Syria’s infrastructure, population, and economy, emphasizing the long-term implications for recovery and reconstruction.

Main Findings

• Physical Damage: The conflict has caused extensive damage to Syria’s physical capital, with 7% of the housing stock destroyed and 20% partially damaged. In 10 key cities, 27% of housing was affected, with some areas like Tadmur (Palmyra) experiencing 32.8% partial damage. The health sector has also been heavily impacted, with about 16% of medical facilities destroyed and 53% partially damaged. The electricity grid has suffered significant losses, with power generation dropping from 43,164 GWh in 2010 to 16,208 GWh in 2015, a 62.5% decline.

• Human Impact: The conflict has led to a massive loss of life and forced displacement. Estimated deaths range from 400,000 to 470,000, and over half of Syria’s pre-conflict population (around 10.3 million) was forcibly displaced. By November 2016, 18.8 million Syrians remained within the country, while 4.9 million were registered as refugees in neighboring countries. Additionally, an estimated 0.4 to 1.1 million unregistered refugees exist in Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq. Internal displacement reached 5.7 million by January 2017, with 56% staying within their own governorates.

• Economic Consequences: The cumulative GDP loss between 2011 and 2016 is estimated at $226 billion, which is about four times the GDP of 2010. The conflict caused a 61% contraction in real GDP from 2011 to 2015, and an additional 2% decline in 2016, resulting in a 63% decline compared to 2010 levels. The oil sector saw a 93% drop in GDP, while the non-oil economy contracted by 52%. The economic disruption has had a more severe impact than physical capital destruction, as it has significantly reduced investment and economic connectivity.

• Long-Term Recovery Challenges: The longer the conflict persists, the more difficult post-conflict recovery becomes. If the conflict ended in its sixth year (baseline), GDP would recover about 41% of the pre-conflict gap within four years. However, if the conflict ended in its 10th year (alternative scenario), GDP recovery would only reach 28% of the gap. Simulations also suggest that outmigration could double by the 20th year if the conflict continues. The report underscores that without rebuilding economic institutions and restoring networks, replacing physical capital alone will not lead to substantial recovery.

Key Views

• Economic Disruption Over Physical Damage: While physical damage is significant, the report argues that disruptions in economic organization—such as the breakdown of supply chains, loss of connectivity, and reduced incentives for productive activity—have had a far greater impact on economic outcomes than physical destruction. These disruptions reduce profitability and investment, leading to prolonged economic decline.

• Human Development Setbacks: The conflict has severely impacted human development outcomes, including education, health, and employment. The labor force participation rate in Syria was one of the lowest in the world (43.5%) in 2010, and the conflict has further reduced opportunities for the population. The report also notes that the lack of access to basic services such as electricity, water, and healthcare has been a major consequence.

• Persistent Social and Political Effects: The report highlights that the conflict has deepened social and political divisions, making the establishment of efficient institutions and economic mechanisms more challenging. These effects are not captured in the current analysis but are expected to compound the economic and social recovery process.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The study uses remote sensing data and media verification to assess physical damage in ten cities and six sectors. It also incorporates data from partner agencies and UN reports to evaluate demographic and economic outcomes.

• Methodology: The report employs an integrative framework that separates the effects of physical destruction, casualties, and economic disorganization. It also uses a simulation model to estimate the impact of different conflict end-date scenarios on GDP recovery.

• Supporting Organizations: The report was supported by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Space Agency (ESA), among others. It was prepared by a multidisciplinary team of economists, specialists, and consultants under the guidance of World Bank officials.

• Constraints: Due to ongoing conflict and data shortages, the analysis could not fully capture all long-term effects, particularly political and institutional ones. The report focuses on four main areas: physical damage, loss of lives and displacement, economic outcomes, and human development outcomes.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the Syrian conflict has had profound and lasting economic and social consequences. It emphasizes the importance of rebuilding economic institutions and restoring connectivity for meaningful recovery. The findings suggest that the conflict’s impact on economic organization is more severe and enduring than that of physical destruction, and that long-term recovery efforts must address these underlying issues to prevent further societal fragmentation and economic decline.