2015年-世界发展银行全球_Kurdistan_Regional_Government___Economic_and_Social_Impact_Assessment_of_the_Syrian_Conflict_and_ISIS_Insurgency_4页_317kb

KURDISTAN REGIONAL GOVERNMENT (KRG): ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE SYRIAN CONFLICT AND ISIS INSURGENCY

Core Content

This report, part of the MENA Knowledge and Learning Quick Notes Series, assesses the economic and social impact of the Syrian conflict and the ISIS insurgency on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). It highlights the challenges faced by the KRG in managing the influx of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) and outlines stabilization costs across various sectors.

Main Points

Influx of Refugees and IDPs

• Population Increase: The influx of Syrian refugees and IDPs led to a 28% population increase in the KRI in 2015, with Dohuk hosting 60% of the displaced population.
• Total Displaced Population: In 2015, there were 257,000 Syrian refugees and 1,003,300 IDPs, along with 250,000 IDPs from before 2014, totaling 1.5 million.
• Scenarios: Three scenarios were used to estimate stabilization costs:
  • Baseline: 257,000 Syrian refugees and 1,003,300 IDPs.
  • Low Case: Additional 30,000 refugees and 250,000 IDPs.
  • High Case: Additional 100,000 refugees and 500,000 IDPs.

Economic Impact

• GDP Growth: Declined from 8% in 2013 to 3% in 2014, and further contracted by 5% due to ISIS crisis.
• Fiscal Transfers: A 90% drop in fiscal transfers from Baghdad in early 2014, with only US$1.1 billion transferred instead of US$12 billion.
• Wage Arrears: Large wage arrears and reduced government revenues, leading to increased borrowing and quasi-fiscal deficits.

Stabilization Costs

• Overall Stabilization Cost: Estimated at US$1.4 billion for the baseline scenario in 2015, which is 5.6% of non-oil GDP.
• Sectoral Stabilization Costs:
  • Human Development: US$834 million (3.5% of GDP).
  • Health: US$317 million.
  • Education: US$34 million for refugees and US$161.5 million for IDPs.
  • Domestic Energy: US$275–517 million.
  • Water Sector: US$214.3 million.
  • Solid Waste Management: US$111.3 million.

Social Protection

• Poverty Rate: Increased from 3.5% to 8.1% due to the crises.
• Funds Required: Estimated between US$54.2 million and US$87.8 million to bring poverty levels back to pre-crisis conditions.
• Social Safety Net: Managed by the Ministry of Labor & Social Affairs (MOLSA), with a focus on cash transfers to vulnerable groups.

Food Security

• Impact: Increased food demand due to displaced populations, leading to reliance on imports.
• Cost Estimate: US$155.4 million for the baseline scenario to ensure sufficient food supplies.

Housing

• Needs: Shelter for over 243,000 vulnerable IDPs.
• Camps: 26 IDP camps were built, with capacity for 223,790 IDPs.
• Funding: KRG funds three camps, while the international community is expected to fund 20, with three remaining unfunded.

Trade and Infrastructure

• Trade Routes: Closure of key trade routes between North and South Iraq, leading to reduced exports and imports.
• Transport Infrastructure: Strained by increased traffic and humanitarian efforts, with eight bridges destroyed.
• Electricity Demand: Increased significantly, especially in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, with insufficient tariff collection to cover costs.

Environmental Impact

• Water and Sanitation: Increased demand for water, lack of wastewater treatment infrastructure, and sanitation challenges.
• Solid Waste: Daily waste generation increased by 26%, with only Dohuk capable of handling additional waste.
• Air Pollution: Increased due to overuse of power and transport infrastructure, and illegal firewood harvesting.

Key Information

• The KRG has been heavily reliant on fiscal transfers from Baghdad, which have been withheld due to political gridlock.
• The Ministry of Natural Resources (MONR) played a critical role in stabilizing the economy by injecting US$5 billion into the budget.
• Stabilization efforts have been supported by international donors and the World Bank.
• The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms and private sector-led economic diversification to ensure long-term sustainability and growth.

Conclusion

The ESIA underscores the significant economic and social challenges faced by the KRI due to the Syrian conflict and ISIS insurgency. While immediate stabilization efforts are essential, the report highlights the need for long-term strategies to address structural issues and promote economic diversification. It serves as a basis for informing dialogue between the KRG and central government, as well as guiding international efforts to support the region.