2013年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon___Economic_and_Social_Impact_Assessment_of_the_Syrian_Conflict_189页_95mb

Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanon

Core Content

This report, prepared at the request of the Government of Lebanon, presents a rapid Economic and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) of the Syrian conflict on Lebanon from 2012 to 2014. It was conducted in collaboration with the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The assessment quantifies the impact of the conflict on Lebanon's economy and social sectors, highlighting the need for stabilization measures and policy recommendations.

Main Points

1. Nature of the Conflict Spillover

• The conflict in Syria is an ongoing and uncertain shock, not a natural disaster or direct war, with spillovers affecting Lebanon's economy and society.
• The spillover is temporary, but its magnitude and duration are difficult to predict.
• The impact is primarily indirect, affecting economic activity, public services, and social conditions rather than causing material damage to infrastructure or human capital.

2. Economic Impact

• The Syrian conflict is estimated to reduce Lebanon's real GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points annually during 2012-2014.
• The fiscal impact is significant, with a revenue loss of USD1.5 billion and expenditure increase of USD1.1 billion, leading to a total fiscal impact of USD2.6 billion.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio increased from 134% in 2011 to a higher level by 2014, reversing the previous trend of decline.
• Trade disruptions are a major factor, especially in the tourism and food sectors, leading to declines in exports and increases in domestic prices.

3. Social Impact

• The conflict has pushed approximately 170,000 Lebanese into poverty, raising the total number of people below the poverty line from 1 million to 1.17 million.
• The unemployment rate is expected to double to over 20%, with a major portion being unskilled youth.
• Health and education systems are under severe strain due to the influx of Syrian refugees.
• Public services are increasingly overburdened, with declining access and quality.

4. Humanitarian Impact

• Lebanon has maintained an open border policy, allowing Syrian refugees to settle freely.
• By August 2013, over 914,000 Syrian refugees had entered Lebanon, equivalent to 21% of the pre-crisis population.
• The humanitarian emergency has led to the largest operation of its kind in recent years.
• Refugees are the main drivers of increased public service demand, particularly in health, education, and social safety nets.

Key Sectors Affected

1. Health Sector

• Increased demand for health services has strained Lebanon's health system.
• Shortages in health workers and rise in communicable diseases such as measles and tuberculosis have been reported.
• Unpaid commitments to contracted hospitals have increased, and risks of epidemics are on the rise.
• The fiscal cost is estimated at USD308-340 million, with USD166-242 million required for short-term job creation.

2. Education Sector

• The influx of Syrian refugees has significantly increased the demand for education.
• Net enrollment rates have been affected, with a focus on basic education.
• The fiscal cost is estimated at USD308-340 million, with USD1.4-1.6 billion needed for stabilization.

3. Social Safety Nets

• The National Poverty Targeting Program and other social safety nets are under pressure due to the increased number of refugees.
• The poverty rate is expected to rise by 170,000 people.
• Social tensions are increasing, including gender-related issues, as the social services sector becomes overburdened.

4. Infrastructure and Public Services

• Water and sanitation systems are under stress due to the increased demand from refugees.
• Solid waste management and transportation sectors have seen significant strain, with declines in construction permits and increased transit traffic.
• Electricity supply has been affected, with increased demand and higher costs for alternative supply.

Key Findings and Implications

• The economic and social impact of the Syrian conflict is severe and growing.
• The fiscal burden on the government is increasing, with revenue loss and expenditure rise.
• Public service quality and access are declining.
• Tourism and trade are particularly vulnerable to the conflict's indirect effects.
• The refugee influx is a major driver of economic and social challenges.
• Stabilization efforts are needed, with an estimated USD2.5 billion required to restore public service access and quality.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the Syrian conflict has had a profound and negative impact on Lebanon's economic and social fabric. It calls for urgent policy interventions to address the fiscal and structural challenges posed by the refugee influx and conflict spillovers. The Government of Lebanon is advised to prioritize stabilization measures and policy recommendations to mitigate the long-term effects of the conflict on the country's economic and social development.