世界发展银行-Compounding-Misfortunes---Changes-in-Poverty-Since-the-Onset-of-COVID-19-on-Syrian-Refugees-and-Host-Communities-in-Jordan,-the-Kurdistan-Region-of-Iraq-and-Lebanon_50页_2mb

Summary of "COMPOUNDING MISFORTUNES: Changes in Poverty since the onset of COVID-19 on Syrian Refugees and Host Communities in Jordan, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and Lebanon"

Core Content

This report analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated crises on poverty levels among Syrian refugees and host communities in Jordan, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), and Lebanon. It highlights how the pandemic compounded existing vulnerabilities, leading to significant increases in poverty rates. The study uses macroeconomic projections and pre-pandemic survey data to simulate the effects of the crisis on household consumption and poverty, while acknowledging the limitations of data availability.

Main Findings

• Poverty Increase:

  • Jordan: Poverty increased by 38 percentage points among Jordanians and 18 percentage points among Syrian refugees.
  • KRI: Hosts, refugees, and IDPs experienced increases of 24, 21, and 28 percentage points respectively.
  • Lebanon: One-third of the population (33 percentage points, or 1.7 million people) is expected to have fallen into poverty, and as many as 56 percentage points (840,000 people) of Syrian refugees.

• Mitigation Efforts:

  • In Jordan, government cash transfers mitigated the poverty impact by 12% (4 p.p.) by the fourth month of the crisis.
  • In KRI, cash assistance to refugees and IDPs mitigated up to 17% (5.5 p.p.) of the poverty increase.
  • In Lebanon, UNHCR assistance mitigated around 8% (3 p.p.) of the poverty increase.

• Economic Impact:

  • Jordan: Estimated GDP loss of 8.2% in 2020.
  • KRI: Estimated GDP loss of 10.5% in 2020.
  • Lebanon: Estimated GDP loss of 25% in 2020, exacerbated by political and economic instability, and the Port of Beirut explosion.

• Inflation and Living Costs:

  • Lebanon experienced inflation over 100%, significantly affecting the cost of living.
  • Refugees, particularly in Lebanon, were highly concentrated in low-skilled informal jobs, making them more vulnerable to economic shocks.

• Negative Coping Mechanisms:

  • Households reduced food intake, incurred additional debt, and in some cases faced eviction.
  • Negative coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school or selling productive assets, had long-term welfare repercussions.

• Data Limitations:

  • The study relies on pre-COVID-19 surveys and macroeconomic projections due to the lack of reliable and accessible data.
  • The findings are subject to caveats, as they are based on assumptions and do not account for all forms of assistance.

Key Information

• Data Sources:

  • The Syrian Refugees and Host Community Survey (SRHCS) from 2015-16.
  • Macroeconomic projections from World Bank country economists.
  • UNHCR administrative data and rapid needs assessments.

• Assumptions and Limitations:

  • The study does not include detailed sub-group decompositions.
  • Macroeconomic shocks are applied homogenously within sectors.
  • The projected recovery path may be overly optimistic.

• Policy Implications:

  • There is a critical need for more recent and reliable official statistics to better inform policy decisions.
  • Additional responses from governments and the international community are necessary to prevent continued poverty and misery.
  • The second phase of the study will incorporate more detailed data on job losses and economic scarring.

Structure and Methodology

• Methodology:

  • The study uses dynamic microsimulations to estimate changes in poverty over time.
  • It incorporates macroeconomic trends, changes in earnings, and inflation data.

• Timeframe:

  • The study focuses on the period from the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 to December 2020.
  • The recovery path is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 12 to 14 months for Jordan and KRI, but not for Lebanon due to ongoing economic and political crises.

• Collaboration:

  • The study is a joint effort between the World Bank Group and UNHCR.
  • It is part of a two-phase collaboration, with Phase II focusing on calibrating the models and analyzing mitigation costs and policy options.

Conclusion

• The pandemic has significantly increased poverty among refugees and host communities in Jordan, KRI, and Lebanon, particularly in the context of existing economic and political challenges.
• Mitigation efforts have had some positive impact, but they have been insufficient to prevent substantial increases in poverty.
• The report emphasizes the need for improved data collection and more comprehensive policy responses to address the ongoing crisis and support recovery.