2015年-世界发展银行全球_The_Economic_Impact_of_the_Syrian_War_and_the_Spread_of_ISIS_3页_768kb

MENA Knowledge and Learning - Quick Notes Series: The Economic Impact of the Syrian War and the Spread of ISIS

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the economic impact of the Syrian War and the spread of ISIS on the greater Levant region, including Turkey, the Syrian Arab Republic, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt. The study uses a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify both direct and indirect economic effects, highlighting the significant disruptions caused by the conflict.

Main Points

• Economic Impact Overview: The three years of war (mid-2011 to mid-2014) are estimated to have cost the greater Levant $35 billion in output (measured in 2007 prices).
• Direct vs. Indirect Effects:
  • Direct effects include loss of life, refugee outflows, infrastructure destruction, trade embargoes, increased business costs, and productivity decline.
  • Indirect effects relate to the loss of potential benefits from trade integration initiatives, such as agricultural trade liberalization with Turkey, improved transport logistics, and services trade liberalization within the region.
• Regional Disparities: The economic losses were unevenly distributed. Syria and Iraq experienced the most severe impacts, with their economies potentially being 38.3% and 23.4% larger in real terms, respectively, had the war not occurred.
• Welfare Effects:
  • Aggregate welfare effects (total economic output) showed mixed results, with Lebanon experiencing a 3.9% increase in output due to refugee inflows.
  • Per capita welfare effects were more uniformly negative, with Lebanon and Syria suffering the most, due to the high proportion of refugees and casualties in their populations.
• Factor Returns:
  • In Lebanon and Turkey, land and business owners benefited from increased demand, while workers saw a decline in real wages due to the influx of refugees.
  • In Syria, the decline in real estate demand due to refugee outflows significantly impacted land and labor returns.
  • Indirect effects generally led to lower returns for unskilled labor, physical capital, and natural resources across all countries, except for Turkey in some categories.

Key Findings

• Lebanon's Unique Position: Lebanon experienced a notable increase in aggregate output due to refugee inflows, but per capita welfare suffered significantly due to the high refugee-to-population ratio.
• Syria and Iraq: These countries faced the most severe economic consequences, with both direct and indirect effects contributing to substantial declines in welfare.
• Trade Integration Impact: The failure to implement the "Levant Quartet" trade liberalization plans has had long-term implications for regional economic growth and productivity.
• Limitations of the Analysis: The study does not account for the costs of providing basic services to refugees, the depletion of human and physical capital in Syria, or dynamic investment-growth linkages. It also assumes that ISIS did not capture major oil facilities in Southern Iraq and that its spread was contained within Syria and Iraq.

Conclusion

The economic impact of the Syrian War and the spread of ISIS has been profound, with significant welfare losses across the region. The use of a global CGE model provides a more accurate assessment of these effects compared to conventional linear methods, emphasizing the importance of considering both direct and indirect consequences. The study underscores the need for more comprehensive economic analyses and policy responses to address the long-term impacts of such conflicts on regional development.

Contact Information

• Director: Gerard Byam, Strategy and Operations, MENA Region, The World Bank
• Regional Quick Notes Team: Omer Karasapan and Roby Fields
• Tel #: (202) 473 8177

The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize lessons learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities. The Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its board, or its member countries.