2013年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon_Economic_Monitor_Fall_2013___The_Brunt_of_the_Syrian_Conflict_38页_7mb

Lebanon Economic Monitor Summary (Fall 2013)

Core Content

The Lebanon Economic Monitor Fall 2013 edition provides an analysis of the economic and policy developments in Lebanon during the first half of 2013, with a focus on the spillover effects of the Syrian conflict. It highlights the challenges faced by Lebanon's economy, labor markets, fiscal policy, monetary conditions, financial markets, and balance of payments, and assesses the implications of these developments on the country's economic outlook.

Main Points

Economic Impact of the Syrian Conflict

• The Syrian conflict has significantly impacted Lebanon's economy, with a cumulative cost estimated at USD7.5 billion by end-2014.
• The economic activity stagnated in the first half of 2013, with the growth rate of BdL's coincident indicator averaging 2.5 percent year-on-year.
• Lebanon's GDP growth, which was previously robust, has slowed, projected at 1.5 percent for both 2013 and 2014, down from earlier estimates due to political uncertainty and weaker economic activity.
• Tourism, a major contributor to growth and employment, has declined sharply, with tourist arrivals dropping by 17 percent in 2012 and an additional 10 percent in the first eight months of 2013.
• The conflict has also led to a significant increase in the number of Syrian refugees, estimated to push Lebanon's population to 4.3 million, with wide variations in the impact across districts.

Fiscal Policy and Deficits

• The fiscal deficit widened in 2013 to 8.7 percent of GDP, driven by increased current expenditures and a drop in revenues.
• The primary fiscal surplus shrank by 91.9 percent year-on-year, while the overall fiscal deficit increased by 46.7 percent.
• The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise to 137.1 percent in 2013 and 141.2 percent in 2014, reversing the long-term downward trend.
• The fiscal cost of the conflict is estimated at USD2.6 billion, with an additional USD2.5 billion needed to restore public services to pre-conflict levels.

Banking Sector and Monetary Policy

• The Lebanese banking sector, traditionally liquid and resilient, has experienced a slowdown in growth, which started prior to the Syrian conflict.
• Despite this, the sector continues to attract foreign deposits due to favorable interest rate spreads.
• The money supply (M3) increased by 3.2 percent year-on-year, reflecting the central bank's accommodative monetary policy.
• The dollarization rate of deposits rose slightly to 65.7 percent in August 2013, indicating a loss of confidence in the local currency.

Financial Markets

• The Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) saw a decline in its index, with the BLOM index dropping by 5.4 percent between January and August 2013.
• Trading volumes fell by 43.7 percent, reflecting weak investor sentiment.
• Financial markets in Lebanon remain shallow, with low market capitalization and liquidity compared to international standards.

Balance of Payments and External Debt

• The trade-in-goods deficit decreased in 2013 due to increased exports to Syria and reduced fuel imports.
• The overall balance of payments strengthened, with a 28.7 percent year-on-year decline in the deficit, attributed to a reduction in the trade deficit and increased net foreign inflows.
• Foreign reserves increased to USD31.3 billion by July 2013, despite a decrease in gold prices.

Key Information

• Economic Activity: Stagnated in 2013 due to the Syrian conflict, with a growth rate of 2.5 percent year-on-year for BdL's coincident indicator.
• Tourism: Suffered a significant decline, with tourist arrivals down 17 percent in 2012 and 10 percent in the first eight months of 2013.
• Fiscal Deficit: Rose to 8.7 percent of GDP in 2012 and is expected to continue widening in 2013, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 137.1 percent.
• Banking Sector: Experienced a slowdown in growth but remains highly liquid and resilient, with foreign deposits increasing by 23.4 percent year-on-year.
• Monetary Policy: BdL adopted an accommodative stance, leading to a 3.2 percent increase in M3, but with limited multiplier effects due to weak consumer sentiment.
• Balance of Payments: Improved in 2013 due to reduced imports and increased exports, with foreign reserves rising to USD31.3 billion.

Prospects

• Economic growth in Lebanon is expected to remain weak at 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2014 unless the regional and domestic environments improve.
• The growth rebound to 4 percent in 2015 depends heavily on the resolution of the Syrian conflict and improved security and political conditions.
• Risks to growth projections include a worsening security situation, deepening political gridlock, and regional instability, such as events in Egypt or a regionalization of the Syria crisis, which could lead to higher oil prices and a decline in tourism.

Conclusion

The Syrian conflict has had a profound and multifaceted impact on Lebanon's economy, labor markets, and public services. While the country's economic fundamentals remain strong, the spillover effects of the conflict have introduced significant risks, particularly in the fiscal and financial sectors. The outlook for Lebanon is contingent on regional stability and domestic policy reforms.