20210211-USDA-Feed_Outlook_Strong_Global_Prices_and_Foreign_Demand_Raise_Projected_Corn_Exports_14页_536kb

Feed Outlook Summary - FDS-21b, February 11, 2021

Core Content Overview

This report provides an outlook for the U.S. and global feed grain markets for the 2020/21 marketing year. It highlights the impact of strong global demand and high prices on U.S. corn, sorghum, and barley exports, as well as changes in production and trade dynamics across key regions.

Main Points

1. U.S. Corn Exports and Prices

• Record Exports: U.S. corn exports for 2020/21 are projected at 2,600 million bushels, a 50-million-bushel increase from the previous month, which would set a new record if realized.
• Price Increase: The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised to $4.30 per bushel, up $0.10, due to reduced ending stocks.
• Ending Stocks: Projected ending stocks are reduced to 1,502 million bushels, the lowest since 2013/14, driven by strong export activity.
• Export Trends: Export activity has been robust, with 38.8 million bushels shipped to China in December alone, and 124 million bushels shipped between September and December, compared to less than a million in the same period the previous year.
• USDA Data: USDA Export Inspections through February 4 indicate a strong export pace since the start of the year.

2. Ethanol Exports and Domestic Use

• Ethanol Exports Surge: Ethanol exports to China and Hong Kong surged in December, representing 21.9% of total U.S. ethanol exports, making them the largest destinations.
• Domestic Use Cut: Sorghum use for ethanol is cut by 5.0 million bushels to 8.0 million bushels due to low domestic demand and high cash prices reducing processor margins.
• Export Shift: The diverted sorghum is expected to increase exports to 295.0 million bushels, with the season-average farm price revised up to $4.80 per bushel.

3. Barley Exports

• Barley Exports Rise: Barley exports are forecast to increase by 1.0 million bushels to 9.0 million bushels for 2020/21.
• Price Increase: The domestic season-average price for barley is raised to $4.70 per bushel, up $0.10.
• Global Demand: Strong export demand, particularly from China, is driving the increase in barley trade.

International Outlook

1. Global Coarse Grain Production

• Total Production: Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is projected at 1,438.9 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons from the previous month.
• Regional Changes:
  • South Africa: Corn production increased by 0.5 million tons to 16.5 million tons due to favorable planting conditions.
  • Paraguay: Corn production decreased by 0.4 million tons to 4.2 million tons due to dry conditions affecting yields.
  • Argentina: Barley production increased by 0.4 million tons to 4.1 million tons based on higher harvested area reported after the harvest.

2. Global Coarse Grain Trade

• Total Trade: Global coarse grain trade is projected to increase by 3.6 million tons to 226.7 million tons.
• China's Role: China's increased imports are a major driver of global trade, with projected imports of 40.3 million tons of corn, barley, oats, and sorghum in 2020/21, more than double the previous year’s 17.5 million tons.
• Trade Flows:
  • U.S. Exports: Increased by 1.0 million tons to 65.0 million tons, with notable sales to China.
  • India: Corn exports increased by 0.9 million tons to 1.5 million tons, reflecting increased shipments to South Asian markets.
  • Argentina and Brazil: Corn exports both increased by 0.5 million tons to 29.5 million tons and 40.5 million tons, respectively.
  • South Africa: Corn exports increased by 0.2 million tons due to higher production.

3. Coarse Grain Imports and Exports by Country

• China: Increased imports of corn, barley, and sorghum, driven by high domestic prices and strong livestock feed demand.
• EU and Japan: Reduced corn imports due to high global prices and increased competition from China.
• South Korea and Saudi Arabia: Reduced barley and corn imports, respectively, due to high global prices.
• India and Brazil: Increased corn exports, reflecting strong global demand and favorable trade conditions.

Key Information and Figures

• U.S. Corn Exports: Projected at 2,600 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from the previous month.
• U.S. Corn Ending Stocks: Reduced to 1,502 million bushels, the lowest since 2013/14.
• Sorghum Exports: Forecast at 295.0 million bushels, with season-average farm price at $4.80 per bushel.
• Barley Exports: Forecast at 9.0 million bushels, with season-average price at $4.70 per bushel.
• Global Corn Production: Projected at 1,134.1 million tons, up 0.2 million tons.
• Global Barley Production: Projected at 157.4 million tons, up 0.2 million tons.
• Global Coarse Grain Trade: Increased by 3.6 million tons, with China as the largest importer.

Conclusion

The U.S. feed grain market is experiencing strong export activity and rising prices due to high global demand, especially from China, and favorable trade conditions. While domestic use for ethanol has declined, export volumes have increased significantly. Southern Hemisphere production has played a key role in adjusting global supply and trade dynamics, with South Africa and Argentina showing notable increases, and Paraguay experiencing a decrease. Global prices remain elevated, influencing trade patterns and import decisions across major markets.