2025-06-04-Jefferies-国防公司推动利润率扩张_36页_852kb

报告摘要

Equity Research Summary: India Engineering & Construction

Overview

Defense and power sectors in India show robust growth, with defense order flows up 28% YoY, driven by companies like HAL and Siemens.
Capex growth and power transmission opportunities are key drivers for top picks (HAL, Siemens, L&T, KEI, ABB).
Valuations are elevated based on medium-term EPS growth and margin expansions, with FY27E projections provided for most companies.

Key Companies Analyzed

HAL: India's leading defense aircraft manufacturer; FY25 order book supports 6.1x revenue; margin upside likely due to growth and indigenization.
Siemens: Strong in power, railways, and healthcare; margins to benefit from exports and domestic projects.
L&T: Exploiting capex revival; ROCE/ROE improving with focus on domestic and Middle East markets.
KEI: CAGR of 25% expected in earnings; gaining market share in retail and exports.
ABB: Earnings growth driven by domestic infrastructure spend; export pickup may surprise.
Others: Bharat Electronics, Thermax, and Afcons also analyzed with positive outlooks in niche sectors.

Market Trends and Growth Drivers

Defense sector: High visibility from Make in India initiatives, expected 14% CAGR in domestic capex; railways outlook improved.
Power transmission: Capex opportunities, with estimates rising to Rs25 trillion+ by 2030; renewables and electronics growth highlighted.
Operational leverage: Most companies show improving margins, with targeted FY27E EPS and PE multiples ranging from 25x to 55x.

Investment Thesis & Valuations

Top Picks: HAL, Siemens, L&T, KEI, ABB rated "BUY" with target prices based on higher multiples.
FY27E EPS: Rs161.9 for HAL, Rs75 for Siemens, Rs155.65 for L&T, Rs114.28 for KEI.
Risks: Regulatory delays, margin pressure, and slowdowns in capex cycles for down-side scenarios.

Analyst Recommendations

Lavina Quadros and Shirom Kapur certify views align with personal analysis.
Reports include company disclosures, analyst certifications, and emphasis on ESG factors in sustainable operations.

This summary highlights key opportunities in defense and power engineering in India, with strong growth potential amid improving orders and captive market dynamics.

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