Allianz+中国缓慢着陆-英文-14页_440kb

Summary

ECB and Eurozone Economic Outlook

The ECB Governing Council meeting likely marks the peak of interest rates at around 4%, with a potential pause amid slowing economic indicators and ongoing disinflation. Key concerns include weak economic sentiment, declining credit demand, and high inflation persisting. Energy prices are expected to remain elevated, with Europe reducing reliance on Russian gas but facing risks from winter weather and LNG competition with China. Corporates in both the US and EU are experiencing slowing demand, leading to revenue declines and financial pressures, though the US shows some resilience in earnings. The euro is forecasted to stay near USD 7.2 by year-end, with sovereign yields rising slowly.

Energy Outlook

Europe has met its gas storage targets early, reducing Russian dependency, but risks include harsh winters and energy competition with China. OPEC+ supply controls keep oil prices stable, with Brent expected at USD 84/bbl in Q4 2023 and averaging USD 85/bbl in 2024.

Corporate Performance

Global corporate revenues and earnings fell in Q2, with European companies seeing steeper declines due to energy and demand factors. Slowing demand has bit faster than tightening financing conditions, leading to overstocking and reduced inventories. High-yield companies face funding challenges, and inventory levels remain elevated.

China Economic Outlook

China is pursuing a "slow landing" strategy, with consumer confidence remaining low and support measures focused on employment, housing, and financial easing. The housing market is stabilizing through regulatory changes, but monetary policy is still too restrictive overall. China is exporting deflation, lowering G7 inflation, but structural adjustments will keep growth sluggish. GDP growth is forecast at 5.3% in 2023 and 4.7% in 2024, with increased global dependency on China's consumer declining for some economies but rising for others.