2015年-德勤中国_德勤2015年全球化工并购展望报告_20页_1mb

Deloitte 2015 Global Chemical Industry Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the global chemical industry's mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity from 2009 to 2014, and outlines the outlook for 2015. It highlights trends, key drivers, and regional activity, emphasizing the continued momentum in M&A despite global economic uncertainties.

Main Points

• Global Activity:

  • M&A activity in the chemical industry rebounded in 2014 with a significant increase in both volume and value.
  • The year 2014 saw a notable rise in mega deals (over US$1 billion), with 13 such deals totaling over US$52 billion in value, compared to only 8 in 2013 totaling US$13.6 billion.
  • Cross-border M&A activity was a significant contributor to the overall M&A value in 2014, with 168 transactions (26.5% of total) totaling US$40.5 billion.
  • The U.S. remained a key market, with 206 cross-border transactions in 2014, while other regions like China, Germany, and the UK also showed growth.

• Cross-Border Activity:

  • Cross-border M&A is driven by the need to match global customer footprints, access new markets, and gain cost competitiveness.
  • Risks associated with cross-border deals include regulatory hurdles, tax planning, and foreign currency exposure.
  • Despite these challenges, cross-border activity is expected to continue in 2015, although it may not match the high value of 2014.

• Drivers of Cross-Border M&A:

  • A more stable global economy has reduced M&A risks, encouraging chemical companies to explore foreign markets.
  • Companies aim to expand their global presence to better serve customers and maintain competitiveness in local markets.
  • The focus on biotechnology and renewables is a growing trend, driving portfolio realignment and innovation.

• M&A Activity by Chemical Segment:

  • Commodities: M&A volume increased in 2014, though growth rates lagged behind other segments. Key deals included INEOS and Flint Hills Resources.
  • Intermediates and Specialty Materials: M&A rebounded with a 20.5% increase in volume. Biotechnology and innovation are key drivers.
  • Fertilizers and Agricultural Chemicals: Expected to see the highest growth in M&A activity in 2015 due to global population growth and food security concerns.
  • Industrial Gases: Continued growth due to the hydrogen economy and industrialization in emerging markets.
  • Diversified: Expected to have flat M&A volumes in 2015, as these companies typically focus on larger deals.

Key Markets

• United States:

  • M&A activity increased in both volume and value in 2014, driven by strong financial markets and favorable credit.
  • Companies are focusing on portfolio realignment, with notable deals such as Albemarle's acquisition of Rockwood and Eastman's acquisition of Taminco.
  • The U.S. dollar appreciation and strong equity markets may affect the attractiveness of U.S. assets to foreign buyers.

• Germany:

  • M&A activity was generally limited to smaller transactions, with a focus on organic growth and portfolio optimization.
  • Merck KGaA's acquisition of Sigma Aldrich was a notable exception.
  • Regulatory pressures and higher energy costs are expected to drive further portfolio realignment in 2015.

• United Kingdom:

  • M&A activity remained steady in 2014, with a focus on small to mid-sized businesses.
  • Cross-border deals and domestic consolidation are key growth strategies.
  • The outlook for 2015 is positive, with increased deal flow expected.

• China:

  • Domestic M&A activity in 2014 was three times higher than inbound M&A.
  • Focus is on intermediates and specialty materials as well as agrochemicals.
  • The government's support for consolidation and liberalized FDI policies is expected to drive growth in M&A in 2015.

• Japan:

  • Cross-border M&A activity is robust, particularly in fine and life science chemicals.
  • Commodity chemicals face challenges due to lower domestic demand and competition from other countries.
  • The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry is promoting consolidation to enhance competitiveness.

• Brazil:

  • The chemical industry faces trade imbalances and economic uncertainty.
  • M&A and joint ventures are being used to realign product portfolios and rationalize costs.
  • The outlook for 2015 is cautious, with a mild pace of M&A activity.

• India:

  • The chemical industry is expected to grow at 15% annually, reaching US$290 billion by 2017.
  • M&A activity is supported by GDP growth, FDI liberalization, and rising per capita consumption.
  • Cross-border and domestic M&A are both expected to increase in 2015.

Summary Outlook for 2015

• The momentum of M&A activity is expected to continue in 2015, albeit at a slower pace than 2014.
• Cross-border M&A will remain a key trend, especially in emerging markets.
• Shareholder activists and private equity investors are expected to play a significant role in driving M&A activity.
• Commodities M&A will continue, but growth may lag behind other segments.
• Fertilizers and agricultural chemicals are likely to see the highest M&A growth in 2015 due to global population and food security trends.
• Private equity will maintain a steady presence in the M&A market, with a focus on technology and innovation.

Key Trends and Risks

• Biotechnology and renewables are becoming more prominent in M&A strategies.
• Regulatory challenges and foreign currency exposure are key risks in cross-border deals.
• Portfolio rationalization and cost efficiency are driving M&A activity across segments and regions.
• Economic uncertainty in some markets may temper M&A activity, but not eliminate it.

Conclusion

The 2015 outlook for the chemical industry's M&A activity is positive, with continued focus on global expansion, portfolio realignment, and innovation. While the pace may not match 2014, the industry is expected to maintain a robust M&A environment, particularly in key markets such as the U.S., China, and Brazil.