2017年-德勤全球_Tracking_the_trends_2018_11页_2mb

Augmented Reality: On the Cusp of Reality

Core Content

Deloitte Global forecasts that augmented reality (AR) is poised for significant growth, with the potential to transform how users interact with digital content. The report highlights the increasing role of AR in everyday life, especially through smartphones, and its impact on various industries.

Key Predictions and Trends

• Smartphone Content Creation: In 2018, over one billion smartphone users will create content once, with 300 million being monthly creators and tens of millions weekly creators.
• AR Innovation: AR is not a new concept but has seen improvements in photorealistic quality, enhancing user experience and engagement.
• Smartphone Usage: A significant portion of global adult smartphone users will try to limit their phone usage in 2018. Specifically, 50% of people looked at their smartphones over 50 times a day in 2017, and 18-24 year olds are more likely to feel they use their phones too much.
• Machine Learning (ML) Growth: Annual sales of ML chips in global data centers are expected to increase dramatically from 2016 to 2018, doubling in 2018 compared to 2017. This growth is driven by the development of more efficient chips such as FPGAs and ASICs.
• ML Challenges: Despite the growth, the adoption of ML faces several challenges, including a shortage of skilled practitioners, the immaturity of tools, the difficulty of gaining quality data, the complexity of models, and regulatory issues.
• Digital Media Subscriptions: The number of digital media subscriptions is projected to rise, with 580 million subscriptions expected in 2018 and a 20% year-on-year increase by 2020. Video on demand is the most popular category, followed by music, games, and news.
• Adblocking Trends: Adblocking is prevalent, with 80% of adults in North America using at least one ad-blocking method. The heaviest users (those blocking four or more ads) are primarily in the 18-34 age group.
• In-Flight Connectivity (IFC): By 2018, 1 billion passenger journeys will be on planes equipped with IFC, a 20% increase from 2017. The rise in IFC is attributed to more routes, higher speeds, and greater data capacity. Airlines are expected to generate around $1 billion in revenue from IFC.
• Mobile-Only Internet: In North America, 20% of homes with internet access will rely solely on mobile networks by 2018. This trend is expected to grow to 30%-40% by 2022 due to the expansion of 5G technology. Rural residents and low-income households are the most likely to adopt mobile-only internet.

Summary

The document outlines key trends and predictions in the tech industry, focusing on AR, ML, digital media, and in-flight connectivity. It emphasizes the growing role of smartphones in content creation and consumption, the challenges and opportunities in ML adoption, the increasing popularity of digital media subscriptions, and the expansion of mobile-only internet access. The insights suggest that technology is evolving rapidly, with AR and ML at the forefront, while also highlighting the need for addressing user concerns such as distraction and ad-blocking.