世界银行-重新审视生产力：在分析和政策中转变范式（英文）-2018.10-204页-3mb

Productivity Revisited: Summary

Core Content

This document, Productivity Revisited: Shifting Paradigms in Analysis and Policy, is part of the World Bank Productivity Project and explores the current state and future directions of productivity analysis and policy in developing countries. It outlines key findings and new methodologies that challenge traditional understandings of productivity growth and its drivers, emphasizing the need for updated approaches in policy design and evaluation.

Main Views and Key Points

The Role of Productivity in Development

• Productivity is the central driver of economic development and poverty reduction.
• It accounts for half of the differences in GDP per capita across countries.
• Sustained productivity growth is essential for creating good jobs and increasing household purchasing power.
• Technological progress is the fundamental fuel of growth, but its impact on productivity data is not always evident.

The Global Productivity Slowdown

• Productivity growth has slowed globally, especially in developing countries, despite advances in computing and technology.
• The slowdown is not well understood, with no consensus on its causes.
• Two main perspectives are presented:
  • Declining Economic Dynamism: Suggests that reduced job reallocation, firm turnover, and entrepreneurial activity are responsible for the slowdown.
  • Technological Stagnation: Argues that the pace of technological progress may have slowed, and the benefits of new technologies are not reflected in productivity data.

The Innovation Paradox

• The expected convergence of developing countries to advanced economies through technological catch-up has not materialized.
• The gap between advanced and developing economies has widened, leading to a "Great Divergence."
• The adoption of foreign technologies and practices is not yielding the expected gains, possibly due to missing complementarities in financial markets, firm capabilities, and business climate.

The Second-Wave Productivity Analysis

• The second wave of productivity analysis has advanced our understanding of the mechanisms and dynamics behind productivity growth.
• Key developments include:
  • Improved access to firm-level data in developing economies.
  • Critical re-evaluation of traditional methods for estimating productivity, such as production functions and total factor productivity (TFP).
  • New insights into the role of human capital, including managerial skills and psychological traits, in productivity improvements.
  • A better understanding of the role of entrepreneurship and the link between innovation and productivity.

Productivity Policy Recommendations

• The book emphasizes the need for a comprehensive and coherent national productivity system.
• It calls for policies that enhance the quality of the business environment, support innovation, and improve the integration of firms into global value chains.
• It highlights the importance of quality infrastructure, regulatory coherence, and reducing misallocation and dispersion in productivity across firms and sectors.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure 1.1: Output per worker growth has been declining in both industrial and developing countries.
• Figure 1.2: Productivity slowdown is decomposed into total factor productivity and capital deepening.
• Figure 1.3: The U.S. has experienced long-term fluctuations in productivity growth.
• Figure 1.4: The number of global researchers has doubled since 1995, with significant growth in developing countries.
• Figure 1.5: Most U.S. patents in China and India are co-invented by multinational firms.
• Figure 1.6: No clear link between productivity slowdown and information technology.
• Figure 1.7: Industrial concentration has not increased in emerging markets.
• Figure 1.8: Labor markets in advanced economies are becoming more polarized.
• Figure 1.9: Robots may be creating rather than displacing manufacturing jobs.
• Figure 4.9: Engineering density in 1900 correlates with technology adoption rates since 1900.

Key Tables

• Table 3.1: Data cleaning methods significantly affect the measure of misallocation.
• Table 3.2: India and the U.S. have similar levels of dispersion after data cleaning.
• Table 4.1: Immigrants dominated industrialization in Latin America during the Second Industrial Revolution.

Conclusion

• The book concludes that while the sources of the global productivity slowdown are not yet clear, there is no evidence of a pronounced decline in dynamism or industrial concentration in developing countries.
• It underscores the importance of addressing structural issues in the national productivity system, including regulatory uncertainty, weak contracting mechanisms, and limited access to quality infrastructure.
• The work calls for more effective and coherent productivity policies that support innovation, entrepreneurship, and integration into global markets.

Authors and Contributors

• Ana Paula Cusolito and William F. Maloney are the main authors.
• The work is supported by numerous World Bank colleagues and external academics, including:
  • Francisco Buera, Jan De Loecker, Marcela Eslava, John Haltiwanger, and others.
  • Peer reviewers such as Otaviano Canuto, Mary C. Hallward-Driemeier, and Chad Syverson.

Acknowledgments

• The volume is dedicated to Jan Walliser, former Vice President of the World Bank Group.
• It acknowledges the support of various World Bank units and the contributions of the Competitiveness Network (CompNet).

Rights and Permissions

• The work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license.
• It includes a disclaimer regarding translations and adaptations.
• The World Bank reserves all rights and privileges, and users are advised to seek permission for reusing third-party content.

Final Notes

• The book is part of a series that aims to bring frontier productivity research to global policy makers.
• It serves as a guide for rethinking productivity analysis and policy in the context of developing countries.
• The findings suggest that productivity policy should focus on improving the business environment, enhancing firm capabilities, and supporting innovation and technology adoption.