世界银行-全球生产力：趋势，驱动力和政策（英文）-2020.7-460页_27mb

Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies Summary

Core Content

This book, Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies, is a comprehensive analysis of productivity growth across the world, with a special emphasis on emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). It examines the long-term trends, underlying drivers, and the impact of major adverse events such as natural disasters, wars, and financial crises on productivity. The book also explores productivity convergence across countries and regions, and the role of technological change and sectoral shifts in shaping productivity outcomes.

Main Views and Key Findings

1. Global Productivity Trends

• Productivity growth has been slowing for a long time, with the slowdown becoming more pronounced after the 2007-09 global financial crisis (GFC).
• The pandemic has further exacerbated this trend, causing a sharp decline in productivity.
• The slowdown has affected both advanced and EMDEs, with EMDEs experiencing the steepest, longest, and broadest decline in productivity growth.
• Productivity growth is a key driver of per capita income growth and poverty reduction. EMDEs that had the fastest productivity growth between 1981 and 2015 significantly reduced extreme poverty, while those with slower growth saw an increase in poverty rates.

2. Drivers of Productivity Growth

• The slowdown in productivity growth is attributed to several factors, including reduced investment in physical and human capital, slower labor reallocation, and stagnation in educational attainment.
• Technological change, innovation, and demand shocks are identified as critical drivers of productivity.
• The book highlights the importance of structural transformation and the need for policies that promote investment in technology, education, and infrastructure.

3. Impact of Major Adverse Events

• Natural disasters, wars, and financial crises have had severe and lasting negative impacts on productivity.
• The book provides empirical evidence on how these shocks affect productivity in both advanced and EMDEs.
• The pandemic, in particular, has had a significant impact on productivity, with long-term consequences for economic growth and welfare.

4. Productivity Convergence

• Productivity convergence between EMDEs and advanced economies has slowed significantly.
• The convergence process is conditional on strong productivity growth in EMDEs.
• The book identifies different "convergence clubs" based on productivity trajectories and highlights the characteristics that determine membership in these clubs.

5. Technological Change and Employment Trade-offs

• Technology shocks can have both positive and negative effects on productivity and employment.
• There is a trade-off between productivity-enhancing technological changes and job displacement.
• The book suggests that policies should support workers in transitioning to new sectors and ensure that they have the necessary skills and social protections.

6. Sectoral Sources of Productivity Growth

• Sectoral reallocation and firm-level productivity improvements are crucial for overall productivity growth.
• EMDEs face significant productivity gaps across sectors, particularly in manufacturing and services.
• The book calls for targeted policies to support productivity in specific sectors and to foster innovation and efficiency.

Policy Implications

• A proactive and targeted policy approach is essential to reverse the productivity slowdown.
• Investment in physical and human capital, and reallocation of resources to more productive sectors and enterprises, are critical.
• Strengthening competition, supporting technological adoption, and improving education and skills are necessary to enhance productivity.
• A stable macroeconomic environment and growth-friendly institutions are key to the effectiveness of these policies.
• Policies should also address the challenges of informality and provide robust social safety nets to prevent long-term income losses.

Role of the Pandemic

• The pandemic has acted as a major shock to the global economy, compounding the existing productivity slowdown.
• It has had a significant impact on productivity, particularly in EMDEs, through disruptions in labor markets, education, and global trade.
• The pandemic may lead to structural changes in the economy, including a shift toward more capital-intensive production and increased digital connectivity.
• These changes could result in long-term productivity gains, but require supportive policies to ensure they are inclusive and effective.

Conclusion

• The book presents a timely and comprehensive analysis of global productivity trends, drivers, and policy responses.
• It emphasizes the need for targeted and inclusive policies to address the productivity slowdown and its implications for economic growth and development.
• The insights provided are valuable for policymakers, academics, and industry professionals seeking to understand and improve productivity in the context of global challenges.

Key Information

• Author: Alistair Dieppe
• Publisher: The World Bank
• Year: 2020
• Focus: Emerging and developing economies, with a global perspective
• Topics Covered: Productivity trends, drivers, adverse events, convergence, technological change, sectoral shifts
• Audience: Policymakers, economists, and researchers interested in economic growth and productivity
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

Structure of the Book

• Part A: Productivity Trends and Explanations

  • Chapter 1: Global Productivity Trends
  • Chapter 2: What Explains Productivity Growth
  • Chapter 3: What Happens to Productivity During Major Adverse Events
  • Chapter 4: Productivity Convergence

• Part B: Regional Dimensions of Productivity

  • Chapter 5: Regional Productivity: Trends, Explanations, and Policies

• Part C: Technological Change and Sectoral Shifts

  • Chapter 6: Productivity: Technology, Demand, and Employment Trade-offs
  • Chapter 7: Sectoral Sources of Productivity Growth