世界银行-向上奔跑_增长_就业和对生产力的追求_菲律宾经济增长与就业报告（英）-2025_103页_2mb

Philippines Growth & Jobs Report Summary

Core Content

This report, Running Uphill: Growth, Jobs, and the Quest for Productivity, is a World Bank publication analyzing the Philippines' economic growth and job creation landscape as of 2025. It emphasizes the need for structural reforms to move the country toward a more inclusive, innovation-driven, and export-oriented growth model.

Main Viewpoints

• Growth and Job Creation Progress:
  Since 2010, the Philippines has achieved record-low unemployment and significant GDP growth. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in 2024, and the country's GDP has more than doubled. The labor market has shifted toward wage-earning jobs in higher productivity sectors, with employment growing faster than the working-age population (WAP).

• Challenges Remain:
  Despite progress, structural challenges persist. Growth has been largely driven by capital accumulation, with limited gains in total factor productivity (TFP). Informality remains high, with an average of 16 million informal workers from 2012 to 2024. Regional disparities are significant, with the National Capital Region (NCR) having nearly nine times the GDP per capita of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).

• Demographic Window of Opportunity:
  The Philippines is in a demographic window where the working-age population is growing faster than the dependent population. This offers a chance for a demographic dividend, but only if timely and strategic reforms are implemented to unlock potential.

• Need for Productivity-Driven Development:
  To sustain long-term growth and job creation, the Philippines must shift from a consumption and factor accumulation model to one based on investment, innovation, and export orientation. This requires reforms in infrastructure, human capital, and regulatory frameworks.

Key Information

Economic Performance

• Unemployment Rate: 3.8% in 2024, below the government's target range of 4.4–4.7%.
• Poverty Incidence: Declined to 15.5% in 2023, from 18.1% in 2021 and 16.7% in 2018.
• GDP Growth: Doubled since 2010, with an average growth rate of 5.2% over the past 14 years.
• Investment-to-GDP Ratio: Increased from 17.1% (2000–2009) to 22.5% (2010–2023), driven by public and private investments.

Structural Constraints

• Infrastructure Gaps: Connectivity, energy, and resilience infrastructure remain underdeveloped, especially in lagging regions.
• Human Capital Gaps: Low STEM and digital skills, and talent misallocation (e.g., low female labor force participation) hinder productivity and innovation.
• Regulatory Inefficiencies: Complex permitting processes and distortions in key sectors like agriculture and energy limit market contestability and stifle growth.
• Climate Vulnerability: Climate-related events threaten growth stability and job creation, especially in low-income and vulnerable regions.

Policy Recommendations

The report outlines a three-pillar policy framework to drive productivity and inclusive growth:

1. Foundational Infrastructure and Human Capital Investment

   • Focus on connectivity, energy, and resilience to support lagging regions.
   • Invest in early childhood education, healthcare, and nutrition to build a skilled and healthy workforce.
   • Expand tertiary education and technical training to meet the needs of emerging industries and R&D hubs.

2. Business-Enabling Policy Environment

   • Streamline regulations and reduce the cost of doing business.
   • Improve local governance and public service delivery.
   • Enhance competition in key sectors (e.g., energy, agriculture, digital connectivity) to promote efficiency and innovation.

3. Private Capital Mobilization

   • Strengthen the innovation ecosystem.
   • Facilitate technology adoption through better access to finance and risk-sharing instruments.
   • Leverage free trade agreements (FTAs) to expand market access and boost domestic productivity through global competition.

Projected Outcomes

• GDP Growth: Could reach 6.8% annually by 2040 with full implementation of reforms.
• Employment Growth: Expected to increase by 7.0%.
• Wage Growth: Real wages could rise by 12.9%.
• Regional Convergence: Spatial convergence is a key driver of growth, with lower-income regions offering higher returns on investment.

Conclusion

The Philippines has made impressive strides in growth and employment since 2010. However, to achieve its goal of becoming a middle-class economy by 2040, it must address structural and regional disparities through targeted reforms. The report provides actionable recommendations to ensure the country transitions to a more productive and inclusive growth model, supported by the World Bank's strategic framework for private sector development and job creation.

Key Sectors and Concepts

• IT-BPO: A major contributor to job creation and economic growth.
• Digital Technologies: Critical for productivity and innovation, with AI and other disruptive technologies offering significant potential.
• Climate Resilience: Essential for protecting firms and workers from climate shocks.
• Subnational Development: Mobility, connectivity, and decentralization are key to accelerating growth in lagging regions.

Supporting Institutions and Collaborators

The report was prepared by a core team including economists and specialists from the World Bank, with contributions from various government agencies, academic institutions, and consultants. It also draws on insights from seminars, conferences, and workshops involving key stakeholders and experts.

References and Tables

• Standardized Employment Table: Highlights employment trends and regional disparities.
• Standardized Projections Table: Outlines growth and job creation forecasts under different reform scenarios.
• Citations: Includes references to the World Bank, government reports, and academic sources.

This report serves as a comprehensive guide for policymakers, offering a realistic roadmap to achieve sustained, inclusive growth and job creation in the Philippines.