2025-06-16-DNV-全球能源转型展望2050_CCS（英）_72页_21mb

CCS Deployment Outlook: Key Highlights

CCS is at a turning point, with capacity projected to quadruple by 2030.

Technologies & Costs

• Amine absorption is the most mature capture technology.
• Capture costs are expected to drop by ~40% by 2050 due to scale and tech improvements.
• DAC remains expensive but is growing, especially in regions with strong policy support.

Key Sectors by 2050:

• Energy Supply: Mostly driven by hydrogen and ammonia production (~80% share).
• Manufacturing: Cement, steel, and chemicals will be major contributors.

Policy & Financing

• Strong policy support (e.g., 45Q tax credit) is crucial for growth, particularly in North America and Europe.
• Carbon pricing drives early uptake; later growth relies on cost competitiveness.
• Public trust issues (property rights, safety) and regulatory frameworks are key barriers.

Key Considerations

• CCS deployment minimizes climate risks for hard-to-decarbonize sectors.
• Projects face high failure rates due to policy uncertainty and technical challenges.

Carbon Removal

• By 2050, DAC and BECCS will capture 330 MtCO₂/y globally.
• Demand for carbon removal grows due to compliance markets and voluntary offsets.

Geopolitical Landscape

• North America dominates early deployment.
• Europe catches up due to strict climate policies and high carbon prices.

Cost Trajectories

• CCS costs decrease due to learning-by-doing, but regulatory frameworks affect pace.
• Full-chain optimization (e.g., clusters) reduces T&S costs.

Challenges & Opportunities

• Infrastructure development is needed for wider adoption.
• Vertical integration in energy-intensive economies supports early deployment.

This summary highlights the key points from the DNV Energy Transition Outlook on CCS.