DNV：全球能源转型展望2022—氢能预测至2050（英）_118页_35mb

Summary of DNV's Hydrogen Forecast to 2050

Core Content

DNV's Hydrogen Forecast to 2050 is a comprehensive analysis of hydrogen's role in the global energy transition. It outlines the current state of hydrogen use, production methods, infrastructure, and the challenges and opportunities associated with scaling hydrogen as a low-carbon energy carrier. The report also highlights the importance of policy, safety, and economic factors in shaping the future of hydrogen.

Main Viewpoints

• Hydrogen's Role in Decarbonization: Hydrogen is seen as a critical component for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, shipping, and high-heat industrial processes. However, its current use as an energy carrier is minimal, and its role in a net-zero pathway is expected to be limited unless stronger policies are implemented.

• Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production: The report emphasizes that low-carbon and renewable hydrogen production (green and blue) is essential for meeting climate goals. By 2050, green hydrogen is expected to make up over 70% of all hydrogen production, driven by renewable energy and carbon capture technologies.

• Cost and Efficiency: Hydrogen is more expensive and less efficient than direct electrification. It is considered the "last resort" for low-carbon energy. However, its use is necessary in certain sectors where electrification is not viable.

• Infrastructure Challenges: The development of hydrogen infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities, is crucial. The report forecasts that more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally will be repurposed from existing natural gas pipelines, reducing costs significantly.

• Safety and Toxicity: Safety is a major concern for hydrogen and its derivatives, such as ammonia. These risks must be managed through robust engineering and regulatory frameworks to ensure public and financial acceptance.

• Policy Importance: Stronger policy mandates, demand-side measures, and higher carbon prices are essential to accelerate hydrogen adoption. The report notes that Europe's hydrogen policy is more advanced, with hydrogen expected to make up 11% of the energy mix by 2050.

Key Information

Hydrogen Production and Use

• Current Use: Hydrogen is primarily used as an industrial feedstock, mainly in oil refining, fertilizer production, and chemical manufacturing. In 2020, global non-energy hydrogen demand was around 90 million tonnes, equivalent to 2% of global energy demand.

• Future Use: By 2050, hydrogen is expected to satisfy only 5% of global energy demand, which is far below the 15% needed for a net-zero pathway. This low and late uptake indicates the need for more aggressive policy support.

• Energy Demand by Sector:

  • Steel: Around 5 Mt/yr of hydrogen is used for direct reduction of iron (DRI).
  • Ammonia: About 33 Mt/yr of hydrogen is used in ammonia production, with 70% used for fertilizers.
  • Methanol: Approximately 13 Mt/yr of hydrogen is used in methanol production.
  • Oil Refining: Hydrogen is used to reduce sulfur in diesel and upgrade heavy oils, with demand expected to remain stable until around 2030.

• Green Hydrogen Growth: Green hydrogen (produced via electrolysis using renewable energy) is expected to become the cheapest form of production in most regions by 2050. It will be a key player in the energy mix, especially in the transportation and industrial sectors.

• Blue Hydrogen: Blue hydrogen, produced from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS), is expected to account for 28% of hydrogen use by 2050, down from 34% in 2030. It is more cost-effective in regions with access to cheap natural gas.

Hydrogen Value Chains

• Four Competing Value Chains: The report identifies four main hydrogen value chains:

  • Solar PV in Southern Spain
  • Geothermal energy in Iceland
  • Offshore wind on the North Sea
  • Nuclear power

• Ammonia as a Hydrogen Carrier: Ammonia is highlighted as a safer and more convenient transport medium compared to hydrogen. It is expected to be used extensively in shipping, with 59% of energy-related ammonia traded by 2050.

• Hydrogen Derivatives: Derivatives like methanol, e-kerosene, and ammonia will play a key role in decarbonizing heavy transport sectors. However, their adoption will be slower than pure hydrogen due to conversion inefficiencies and costs.

Investment and Infrastructure

• Global Investment: The total global investment in hydrogen production from 2022 to 2050 is forecasted to be USD 6.8 trillion, with an additional USD 180 billion for hydrogen pipelines and USD 530 billion for ammonia terminal infrastructure.

• Pipeline Repurposing: Over 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally will be repurposed from natural gas pipelines by 2050, with some regions seeing up to 80% repurposing. This is expected to be significantly cheaper than new pipeline construction.

Policy and Strategy

• Policy Drivers: Policy and regulatory support are crucial for scaling hydrogen. The report suggests that stronger mandates, demand-side measures, and carbon pricing are needed to push hydrogen adoption to meet net-zero targets.

• Regional Variations: Europe is seen as a leader in hydrogen policy, with hydrogen expected to be 11% of the energy mix by 2050, compared to the global average of 5%.

Safety and Risks

• Hydrogen Safety: Hydrogen has unique safety challenges, including its flammability, low detection threshold, and the need for specialized sensors and odorization systems.

• Ammonia Toxicity: Ammonia, as a hydrogen carrier, has toxicity risks that must be managed through appropriate safety standards and infrastructure.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Challenges: Hydrogen faces significant challenges in terms of cost, efficiency, safety, and infrastructure development. These issues must be addressed for it to play a more prominent role in the energy transition.

• Opportunities: The potential for hydrogen to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors is substantial. Its use in chemical and industrial processes, as well as in transport, is expected to grow with the development of low-carbon production methods and supportive policies.

Conclusion

DNV's forecast indicates that hydrogen will play a limited but growing role in the global energy mix by 2050. While it is not expected to meet the full potential required for a net-zero pathway, it will be a key player in certain sectors. The success of hydrogen will depend on a combination of policy support, technological advancements, and infrastructure development. The report underscores the importance of managing safety and public perception risks, as well as the need for a more aggressive push towards low-carbon hydrogen production.